科技创新对黄河流域碳排放影响的门槛效应分析

Threshold effect of scientific and technological innovation on carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin

黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展是国家重大发展战略,而碳排放是关键影响因素,科技创新能够有效提升能源资源的高效利用,对区域绿色低碳发展和节能减排具有重要的影响作用。考虑科技财政投入与第二产业增值的影响,构建科技创新与黄河流域碳排放的门槛模型,基于人口、经济、生态等因素分析科技创新对黄河流域碳排放的影响作用并研究其演变趋势。结果表明:科技创新对降低黄河流域碳排放具有显著正向影响,科技财政投入对碳排放影响较大,第二产业增值对碳排放有明显的负向作用。从产业发展、政府监管、区域协调等视角提出政策建议,为加快黄河流域“双碳”发展提供一定的理论和应用参考。

Ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin is a major national development strategy,while carbon emission is a key influencing factor.Scientific and technological innovation can effectively improve the efficient use of energy and resources,and has an important impact on regional green and low-carbon development,energy conservation and emission reduction.In this paper,considering the influence of financial investment in science and technology and value-added of the secondary industry,a threshold model of scientific and technological innovation and carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin is constructed.Based on population,economy,ecology and other factors,the impact of scientific and technological innovation on carbon emissions in the Yellow River basin is analyzed and its evolution trend is studied.The results show that scientific and technological innovation has a significant positive impact on reducing carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin,scientific and technological financial input has a greater impact on carbon emissions,and the value-added of secondary industry has a significant negative effect on carbon emissions.This paper puts forward policy suggestions from the perspectives of industrial development,government supervision and regional coordination,and provides certain theoretical and applied references for accelerating the“double carbon”development in the Yellow River Basin.