从日美半导体冲突到中美半导体冲突:动机、性质与冲击

From Japan-US Semiconductor Conflict to Sino-US Semiconductor Conflict:Motivation,Nature,and Impact

时隔30多年美国分别对日本和中国挑起半导体冲突,其动机都是为了维护美国在半导体领域的全球领导地位。由于两个时期大国关系和产业竞争地位不同,两次冲突的性质也有所不同,日美冲突是贸易摩擦和产业竞争,中美冲突是大国竞争框架下的科技竞争和供应链竞争。但美国采取的策略是一致的,即打击对手和增强自身双管齐下;影响的机制也相同,即打击对手造成直接影响,增强自身形成间接冲击。在日本长期萧条的宏观经济背景下,受此重创的日本半导体产业全球地位下降,而中国因经济稳定增长以及在全球供求中的重要地位,受冲击的程度会低于日本。中国有必要从广泛寻求替代技术和投入品、打造新竞争优势以及促进自主创新等方面积极应对。

After more than 30 years,the United States has provoked semiconductor conflicts against Japan and China,both of which are motivated by maintaining the United States'global leadership position in the semiconduc-tor field.Due to the different status of major country relations and industrial competition in the two periods,the na-ture of the two conflicts is different.The conflict between Japan and the United States is trade friction and industrial competition,while the conflict between China and the United States is technology competition and supply chain competition within the framework of major country competition.But the strategy adopted by the United States is consistent,that is,to strike down opponents and strengthen itself;therefore,the mechanism of impact is the same,hitting the opponent to cause direct impact and enhancing oneself to form indirect impact.In the context of Japan's long depression macro-economy,Japan's semiconductor industry,which has been hit hard by this,has declined in its global position,while China will be less affected than Japan because of its stable economic growth and important position in global supply and demand.It is necessary for China to actively respond by seeking alternative technolo-gies and inputs,creating new competitive advantages,and promoting independent innovation.