可靠性预计方法研究及其在产品研发过程中的应用

Research on Reliability Prediction Method and Its Application in Product Development

可靠性预计是在产品研发阶段对产品的可靠性进行预计的一种方法,主要用于评价所提出的设计方案是否满足规定的可靠性定量要求,并从中发现薄弱环节,为改进设计提供依据。而可靠性预计方法选择及使用的正确性至关重要,这直接影响到产品可靠性指标的评估,并影响到产品的设计、使用以及后期的运维等方面。介绍了可靠性的基础理论、数学模型、可靠性建模、预计的程序等,并介绍了可靠性预计的常用的几种方法,即相似产品法、专家打分法、元器件计数法以及应力分析法。随后设计了案例以辅助掌握几种可靠性预计的选择和使用方法,以正确地预计出产品的可靠性指标。通过对几种方法进行详细阐述,为相关人员进行可靠性预计提供参考。

Reliability prediction is a method to predict the reliability of products in the stage of product research and development,which is mainly used to evaluate whether the proposed design scheme meets the specified reliability quantitative requirements,and find out the weak links,so as to provide a basis for improving the design.The correctness of the selection and use of reliability prediction methods is very important,which directly affects the evaluation of product reliability indicators,and affects the design,use and later operation and maintenance of products.The basic theory,mathematical model,reliability modeling and prediction program of reliability are introduced,and several common methods of reliability prediction are introduced,such as similar product method,expert scoring method,component counting method and stress analysis method.Then design some cases to deepen the reader's use of several reliability prediction methods,help readers correctly choose reliability prediction methods,correctly predict the reliability index of the product.Several methods are described in detail in this paper to provide reference for the reliability prediction of relevant personnel.