制造业高质量发展水平的统计测度及时空演变特征研究

Research on Statistical Measurement and Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics of High-quality Development of Manufacturing Industry

为了全面客观地评价制造业高质量发展水平,为推动制造业区域协调高质量发展提供参考依据。文章首先从“创新驱动、产业基础、结构优化、效率效益和方式转换”五个维度构建了制造业高质量发展指标体系,然后基于2000—2019年省级层面的面板数据采用熵权TOPSIS方法对我国制造业高质量发展水平进行了测度,最后使用Dagum基尼系数及核密度估计法考察其时间变化趋势和空间分布特征。结果显示,样本期间我国整体的制造业高质量发展水平呈逐年递增趋势,但存在明显的阶段性特征;制造业高质量发展水平存在显著的区域异质性,东、中、西三大区域的制造业高质量发展水平存在梯度递减效应,东部地区的制造业高质量发展水平明显高于中西部地区;制造业高质量发展水平的地区差异呈波动上升趋势,且该差异主要来源于区域间差异,其次是区域内差异,超变密度的贡献最小;我国各省份制造业高质量发展水平的差异呈现先扩大后缩小再扩大的特征,且多数年份未出现显著的两极分化现象。通过测度制造业高质量发展水平并考察其时空演变规律,可以为制定相关产业政策、促进区域间制造业协同高质量发展提供借鉴和参考。

In order to comprehensively and objectively evaluate the high-quality development level of the manufacturing industry and provide reference basis for promoting regional coordinated and high-quality development of the manufacturing industry,this article first constructs a high-quality development indicator system for the manufacturing industry from five dimensions“innovation driving force,industrial foundation,structural optimization,efficiency and benefits,and mode transformation”,and then uses the entropy TOPSIS method to measure the high-quality development level of manufacturing industry based on the provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2019,and finally uses the Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation method to examine its temporal change trend and spatial distribution characteristics.The results show that in the sample period,the overall high-quality development level of China’s manufacturing industry shows an increasing trend year by year,but there are obvious phase characteristics.There is significant regional heterogeneity in the high-quality development level of the manufacturing industry.The high-quality development level of the manufacturing industry in the three major regions of the east,central and west has a gradient decreasing effect.The high-quality development level of the manufacturing industry in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions.The regional differences in the high-quality development level of manufacturing show a fluctuating upward trend,and the differences are mainly due to inter-regional differences,followed by intra-regional differences.The contribution of ultra-variable density is the smallest.The differences in the high-quality development levels of manufacturing in various provinces in China show the characteristics of first expanding,then shrinking and then expanding,and there is no significant polarization in most years.Measuring the high-quality development level of the manufacturing industry and investigating its temporal and spatial evolution patterns can provide reference for formulating relevant industrial policies and promoting the coordinated high-quality development of manufacturing in different regions.