基于MaxEnt模型的胖大海全球生态适宜区预测及生态特征研究

Global Ecological Appropriate Areas and Ecological Characteristics of Sterculia lychnophora Semen Based on MaxEnt Model

利用35个环境因子和53个胖大海(Sterculia lychnophora Semen)样本点数据,采用Maxent模型预测胖大海全球潜在生态适宜区。用受试者工作特性曲线(ROC,receive operating characteristic)对模型进行评价。模型结果显示,胖大海全球生态适宜区主要分布于赤道附近的热带雨林气候国家,遍布于亚洲东南部、美洲中南部和非洲中西部;此外,在印度半岛南部和非洲中东部也有部分存在。模型评价结果显示,测试集和训练集的AUC值分别为0.988和0.996,表明该模型的预测效果良好。结果显示,影响胖大海分布的主要环境因子包括年温度变化范围(bio7)、最干月份降水量(bio14)、年平均降水量(bio12)、土壤电导率(T-ECE)、昼夜温差与年温差比值(bio3)及土壤盐基饱和度(T-BS)。该研究结果为胖大海人工引种栽培和提高其品质质量提供参考。

According to 35 environmental factors and 53 sample distribution points of Sterculia lychnophora Semen,Maxent model was used to predict the potential ecological appropriate areas of Sterculia lychnophora Semen in the world.The ecological characteristics were analyzed,and ROC(reception operation characteristic)was used to evaluate the results of model.The results of the model showed that the ecologically appro⁃priate areas were mainly located in tropical rainforest climatic countries nearby equator,including southeastern Asia,central America and mid⁃west Africa.Besides,in the southern part of the Indian Peninsula and in the east⁃central Africa,there also was a little part of ecologically appro⁃priate areas.The results of model evaluation showed that the AUC values of test set and training set were 0.988 and 0.996,respectively,which indicated that the prediction effect of this model was good.The research showed that the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of Stercu⁃lia lychnophora Semen included the annual temperature range(bio7),the driest monthly precipitation(bio14),the annual average precipitati⁃on(bio12),the soil conductivity(T-ECE),the ratio of day night temperature difference to annual temperature difference(bio3)and the soil base saturation(T-BS).The results of this research provided references for the introduction and cultivation of Pangdahai and the improvement of its quality.