FTA-BN在机场跑道入侵事故影响因素分析中的应用

Analysis of influencing factors of airport runway incursion accident based on FTA-BN

为了分析机场跑道侵入的影响因素,更有针对性地对预防机场跑道侵入提出合理建议,结合相关信息通告中统计的数据,首先从人员因素、环境因素、设备因素和管理因素4个方面分析跑道侵入的事故成因,并建立了故障树(Fault Tree Analysis,FTA)模型和贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Network,BN)模型,然后利用软件Netica对贝叶斯网络模型进行了后验概率推理与敏感性分析,最后根据分析结果提出了相应的建议。结果表明,人员因素影响程度最大,其次是管理因素,而环境因素和设备因素的影响程度相对偏小。

To analyze the influencing factors of airport runway intrusion and put forward reasonable suggestions for the prevention of airport runway intrusion,combined with the statistical data in relevant information announcement,the probability of each influencing factor,including the influence degree of basic events,is analyzed by combining Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Network(BN).The analysis overcomes the shortcomings of traditional fault tree analysis to a certain extent.Firstly,taking the runway intrusion accident as the top event,the fault tree model is established.The four factors of personnel factor,environmental factor,equipment factor,and management factor are the intermediate events,and the cause of the accident is the basic event.Then the fault tree network is mapped into a Bayesian network model,which is analyzed and combined with the relevant statistical case data.Finally,the validity of the Bayesian network model is verified with the help of the probability reasoning analysis platform Netica.A posteriori probability reasoning and sensitivity analysis are carried out to find out the intermediate events and basic events that have a great impact on the accident.The results show that the intermediate event that has the greatest impact on the runway intrusion accident is the personnel factor,followed by the management factor.Compared with the first two factors,the environmental factor and equipment factor have little difference and the degree of impact is relatively small.When it comes to basic events,the factors that have a greater impact and are more sensitive are nonstandard language,weak monitoring,failure to operate according to procedures,insufficient monitoring/poor communication,and imperfect corresponding normative rules,mechanisms and procedures.The research results provide a theoretical basis for reducing airport runway intrusion accidents,reducing the risk of runway intrusion,and formulating more targeted and specific runway intrusion prevention measures.