深部矿山巷道岩爆应急管理能力评估

Evaluation on emergency managementability of rock burst in deep mineroadway

为了降低深部矿山巷道岩爆事故中的人员伤亡与财产损失,提高岩爆事故中的应急管理能力,提出改进组合赋权云模型相结合的深部矿山巷道岩爆应急管理能力评估方法。首先,根据PPRR(Prevention,Preparation,Response,Recovery)应急管理理论,构建包括应急预防能力、应急准备能力、应急响应能力和应急恢复能力4个一级指标的深部矿山巷道岩爆应急管理能力评估指标体系,该体系共包含18个二级指标;其次,引入指数函数改进层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)法,利用改进的AHP法和熵权法分别确定评估指标的主客观权重,将各权重进行融合以获得最优权重,并结合云理论建立改进组合赋权云模型的应急管理能力综合评估模型;最后,以河南某深部矿山巷道为例,运用综合评估模型对深部矿山岩爆应急管理能力进行评估。结果显示:深部矿山岩爆应急管理能力等级为Ⅱ,且综合评价云的超熵为0.21(小于4.65/3)。评估结果与实际应急管理能力水平相符,综合评估模型可快速准确地确定深部矿山巷道岩爆应急管理水平。

Rock burst is a common surrounding rock destabilization accident in deep mine roadway excavation,which seriously threatens the safety of mining enterprises.To reduce the casualties and property losses in rock blast accidents in deep mine tunnels and improve the emergency management capability in rock burst accidents,a combination of improved combined empowerment-cloud model is proposed to assess the emergency management capability of rock burst in deep mine tunnels.Firstly,according to the PPRR emergency management theory,this paper constructs an evaluation index system of emergency management capability of rock explosion in deep mine tunnels by analyzing the factors affecting deep mine rock explosion,including four primary indicators of emergency prevention capability,emergency preparedness capability,emergency response capability,emergency recovery capability,and 18 secondary indicators.Then,the logarithmic function is introduced,and the hierarchical analysis is improved by constructing the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method.The improved AHP method and entropy weighting(EWM)method are used to determine the subjective and objective weights of the assessment indicators and fuse the weights to obtain the optimal weights,combined with cloud theory to establish a comprehensive assessment of emergency management capacity cloud model.Finally,a deep mine roadway in Henan Province is selected as an example,using the comprehensive assessment model for rock blast emergency management capacity assessment.The results show that the rock explosion emergency management capability level of the deep mine is II,and the super entropy of the comprehensive evaluation cloud is 0.21<4.65/3.The assessment results are consistent with the actual emergency management capability level,and the proposed model can quickly and accurately determine the rock explosion emergency management level of deep mine tunnels.Applying the model to the actual project,the analysis and prediction of rock blast hazards in deep mines can reduce the accident rate and can provide theoretical support for the emergency management of rock blasts in mines.