不完全信息下的重大事故应急决策方法研究

Research on emergency decisionmaking approach for major accidents under incomplete information

为解决不完全信息下的重大事故应急决策问题,本文提出一种基于D-S证据理论的应急决策方法。首先,分析了重大事故现场关键事故情景和事故情景征兆之间的逻辑关系,并构建了事故证据集;其次,基于D-S证据理论构建了重大事故现场态势预测模型,并依据合成规则,按照时间顺序对重大事故现场得到的不完全信息进行不精确推理,实现了对重大事故关键情景的态势预测和事故应急决策;最后,通过实例验证了方法的可行性。

To solve the emergency decision-making problems under incomplete information and process the accident information under different time sequences at the scene of critical accidents,an emergency decision-making approach based on D-S evidence theory is proposed in the paper,and the method based on the incomplete information obtained at the scene of major accidents is inexactly reasoned according to the time sequence,and the situation prediction and emergency decisionmaking of key scenarios of major accidents are obtained.First of all,through the historical case and expert experience,the logical relationship between the critical accident scenario and the symptom of the accident scene in the oil tank fire accident is established.The basic probability distribution of each critical accident scenario of oil tank fire is obtained by a Logistic regression analysis method,on which the evidence set of oil tank fire is constructed on this basis.Secondly,the knowledge uncertainty and evidence uncertainty are effectively quantified based on D-S evidence theory,the incomplete and insufficient information is taken as the evidence body of the development of the critical accident scene,and the prediction model of the critical accident scene is constructed based on the D-S evidence theory.The basic steps are as follows:(1)determine the disposal target and construct the framework of accident identification;(2)deal with the new evidence information along with the evolution of the accident;(3)calculate the confidence of each critical accident scenario after the synthesis of different evidence;(4)by comparing the threshold set by the decision maker with the trust interval,the situation prediction of the critical accident scenario is completed.Finally,the case of the explosion accident of Zhangzhou PX project on April 6,Fujian Province is used to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach.