考虑人员疏散无序性的片区固定避难空间仿真及优化

Simulation and optimization of an emergency congregate refuge space in an urban area considering the disorder of evacuation

为优化震后城市老旧片区中长期避难疏散阶段避难效率和资源分布,考虑避难场所服务覆盖交叉区域内人员疏散的无序性,以某城市典型老城片区为研究对象,基于震后人员远程疏散特性及中长期避难需求建立固定避难场所吸引度体系,并通过NetLogo多智能体动态仿真模型进行对比分析。结果表明,当避难场所服务半径为0.8 km、1.0 km和1.2 km时,片区内人员均可在49 min内完成疏散,满足规范中对于固定避难1 h内疏散时长的要求,疏散效率较优。基于优化的服务半径和人员疏散需求,对避难场所场地风险、有效面积、避难设施进一步量性优化,为片区固定避难场所合理规划提供理论依据。

This study aims to improve evacuation efficiency and resource distribution in the mid-and long-term evacuation phase after an earthquake.Besides,considering the disorder of evacuation in the cross-region covered by shelter services,this paper takes a typical old area of a city as the research object.Firstly,this paper establishes the attraction system of resident emergency congregate shelters based on the characteristics of remote evacuation and the demand for mid and long-term evacuation of people after an earthquake.Secondly,the Netlogo simulation platform is applied to conduct multi-agent dynamic simulation experiments.Finally,it makes a comparative analysis of the overall evacuation efficiency and evacuation resource allocation in the old urban area.Results of this study show that the overall evacuation time for people in the typical old urban area is at least 65 min when the service radius of emergency shelters is 2 km.It can't meet the specification requirements that people should be evacuated to resident emergency congregate shelters within an hour.Moreover,people in the old urban area can be evacuated within 49 min when the service radius of the resident emergency congregate shelter is 0.8 km,1.0 km,or 1.2 km.This result meets the specification's requirements and has higher efficiency.The overall distribution of shelter resources in the area is relatively balanced when the service radius of the resident emergency congregate shelter is 1.0 km.In conclusion,this paper provides quantitative optimization for shelters'site risk,effective area,and facilities based on the optimal service radius of shelters,people's demand for evacuation,the actual situation of shelters,and less economic cost.It improves shelters'attractiveness,leads people to evacuate properly,and allocates shelter resources proportionally,providing a theoretical basis for rational planning of resident emergency congregate shelters in the old urban area.