政府资本竞争影响投资的时空效应及变动趋势

The Space-time Effect and the Tendency of Covernment Capital Competition on Investment

剖析政府竞争行为对投资的影响对于转型期推动经济市场化转型、调优供给结构具有重要意义,既有研究基于政府投资和私人投资间的正相关性得出政府资本竞争有利于投资的结论,忽视了时空效应,存在偏误。拓展研究的长期和全局视角,基于拉姆齐框架和2004—2019年省际面板数据研究政府资本竞争影响投资的时空效应,结果表明政府-私人资本比越高,竞争越激烈,政府资本竞争越倾向于抑制投资。当前我国政府资本已相对饱和,政府资本竞争在长期和全局意义上会抑制投资,表现出负向时空效应。短期内政府资本主要发挥需求扩散效应和虹吸效应,在长期则以聚集效应为主。时空效应表现出发散性,且以对关联地区的抑制作用为主,具有时间滞后性和空间不对称性。竞争效应越强、溢出效应越弱,对投资的抑制作用也越强。

Analyzing the impact of government competition on investment is of great importance for promoting the market-oriented transformation and optimizing the supply structure in the transition period.Existing studies have concluded that government competition is beneficial to investment because of the positive correlation between government investment and private investment,which ignored the impact of time-space effect,and thus leaded to errors.This paper expands the long-term and overall perspective,and goes deeply into the space-time effect of government capital competition on investment based on Ramsey framework and the inter-provincial panel data from 2004 to 2019.The result shows that government capital competition would more restrain investment if the capital ratio between government and private is higher and the government competition is fiercer.At present,China's government capital has been relatively saturated,and government capital competition will inhibit investment in the long-term and overall sense,showing a negative space-time effect.In the short term,government capital mainly exerts demand diffusion effect and siphon effect,while in the long term,it mainly exerts aggregation effect.The space-time effect is divergent and mainly affects related areas,shows time lag and spatial asymmetry.The stronger the competition effect and the weaker the spillover effect,the stronger the restraining effect is on investment.