低碳出行导向下城市居民共享交通方式选择行为研究

Research on urban residents'shared transportation mode choice behavior under low-carbon travel orientation

共享交通出行方式对合理分配城市运输资源、完善城市交通体系、降低交通领域碳排放具有重要意义。基于随机效用最大化理论,考虑出行行为心理属性等在内的4方面属性因素,构建基于能够反映个体异质性偏好的混合Logit模型,并利用贝叶斯MCMC算法对模型求解。以南昌市为例进行实证分析,结果表明:共享出行的选择行为和选择意向存在较大差异;交通方式相互作用机理明显,衔接性不够成熟;乘客对网约车的安全性关注度较高,性别和自然因素对网约车选择行为影响水平显著;单车停放点的不确定性降低了单车共享出行的依赖性水平。

Based on the multi-faceted attribute factors,the shared travel behavior choices of residents in Nanchang under low-carbon orientation are studied,and then the policy conducive to reducing carbon emissions and efficient shared travel of residents are obtained.Based on the perspective of shared travel,the Revealed Preference Survey(RP Survey)and the stated Preference(SP Survey)questionnaire are designed to conduct a sample survey of Nanchang residents.A mixed logit model is constructed to comprehensively and carefully reflect the heterogeneity of residents'choice preferences by combining multiple factors in social attributes,travel information attributes,natural attributes and psychological attributes of travel behavior.The Bayesian MCMC algorithm is used to calculate the parameters,and the MH algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution.Finally,the samples are drawn from the posterior distribution for Monte Carlo integration.The results are analyzed from the aspect of travel behavior selection and travel behavior intention.The results show that:the waiting time(looking for a car)is more common than the riding time;the uncertainty of the bicycle parking spot reduces the efficiency of bicycle sharing;Passengers are more concerned about the safety of online carhailing,and female passengers are more concerned than male passengers;In extreme weather or at night,urban public transportation is under great pressure.Therefore,it is possible to attract car users to transfer to shared bicycles from the perspective of time and cost:managing users by establishing a reward and punishment mechanism,rationally planning the parking spots of shared bicycles;strengthening the training and supervision of car-hailing drivers and regulating the car-hailing market,appropriately increasing the operating hours or trains of public transport in areas with concentrated crowds at night.The shared motorcycle investment in Nanchang city is small and it should be appropriately increased.