积极老龄化背景下江苏省老年人自我养老能力受损风险预测模型的构建及验证

Construction and Verification of the Risk Predictive Model of Impaired Self-care Ability of the Elderly in Jiangsu Province under the Background of Active Aging

选择江苏省内439名年龄≥60岁的社区老年人,按收集样本的时间顺序将前80%作为建模组,后20%作为验证组。通过Logistic回归模型分析自我养老能力受损的影响因素,据此构建预测模型并绘制列线图,应用受试者工作特征曲线分析其预测效能,使用Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验评价其拟合程度,建立积极老龄化背景下江苏省老年人自我养老能力受损风险的预测模型并分析其预测效能。本研究建立的列线图具有良好预测效能,可为社区或临床预防和管理老年人自我养老能力提供重要参考。

A total of 439 community-dwelling elderly people aged 60 years or and order in Jiangsu Province were selected as research objects.According to the time sequence of collecting samples,the first 80%was defined as the modeling group and the last 20%as the verification group.Logistic regression model was adopted to identify the influencing factors associated with self-care ability impairment.A predictive model was constructed and evaluated using receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curve analysis and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.The predictive model of self-care ability impairment risk of the elderly in Jiangsu Province under the background of active aging was established and its predictive efficiency was analyzed.The nomogram established in this study has good predictive performance.It can provide an important reference for community or clinical prevention and management of the elderly's self-care ability.