政策红利、地理禀赋与增长差异--来自“长江经济带发展战略”的证据

Policy Dividends,Geographical Endowments and Regional Disparity of Economic Growth--Evidence from Development Strategy of Yangtze River Economic Belt

如何缩小区域发展差距,是中国当代迈向高质量发展过程中亟待解决的关键问题。基于2010-2019年中国县级和市级面板数据,利用“长江经济带发展战略”的政策冲击和强度DID方法,可从政策红利与地理禀赋互动的角度,揭示地区增长差异的形成原因及其作用机制。研究发现:平均而言,“长江经济带发展战略”与内河航运禀赋的互动,使地区的GDP和人均GDP分别提高了2.49%和2.66%。机制检验发现,第二产业和第三产业的发展构成了地区增长差异的重要来源。“长江经济带发展战略”使得货运成本大幅下降,产生了工业集聚、要素驱动和需求引致创新等效应,从而推动了产业结构变化,形成了地区增长差异。异质性分析表明,处于长江经济带中上游的地区和低内河航运禀赋的地区,有更快的经济增速。这意味着,如果能够针对各地区的地理禀赋实施相应的制度改革,不仅可以帮助在“三重压力”下找到新的增长动能,而且能够帮助解决区域发展差距过大问题,共同推动实现中国经济高质量发展。

Addressing the wide gaps in regional development is a key issue in the stage of high-quality development.Based on county-level panel data from 2010 to 2019,using the policy shock of the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YEB)and the Difference-in-Differences(DID)method with an intensity index,this paper finds that,on average,the interactive influence mechanisms of policy dividends and geographical endowments significantly promoted regional economic development,making the GDP and GDP per capita of the treatment group about 2.49%and 2.66%,respectively,higher than the control group.This regional disparity of economic growth mainly comes from the development of the secondary and tertiary industries.The mechanism analysis shows that the development strategy of the YEB has led to a sharp fall in freight costs.With the decrease in freight costs,there are three major effects:industrial agglomeration effect,factor-driven effect,and demand-driven innovation effect,which promote the changes in industrial structure and form the regional disparity of economic growth.Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the middle and upper reaches and the regions with low inland waterway transport endowment of the YEB have faster economic growth rates.Institutional reform should be implemented according to the geographical endowments of different regions,which can boost the economy under economic pressure,address the wide gaps in regional development between different regions,and jointly promote high-quality economic development in China.