物流景气指数与宏观经济指标的联动分析

Analysis of Coupling between Logistics Prosperity Index and Macroeconomic Indicators

物流与宏观经济的关系不仅体现在物流对经济的促进作用上,还体现在其可以较为直观地展现宏观经济活力,是观察宏观经济发展的重要指标和参考。为了对这种双向互动关系进行量化分析,首先选用物流景气指数作为衡量物流活动的主要指标,并综合考虑宏观经济的各个方面,选用社会物流消费品零售总额、消费者价格指数和规模以上工业增加值为宏观经济指标,利用它们的月度环比数据构建向量自回归模型,以分析各指标联动关系的变化机理。之后将货运量指标引入模型,并与原有模型进行对比分析,进一步验证了物流景气指数与消费者价格指数、社会消费品零售总额有更紧密的联系。

Logistics is related to macro-economy not only for its role in promoting economic development,but also for its ability to more intuitively reflect the vitality of the macro-economy,thus making it an important indicator and reference for observing the macro-economy.In order to quantitatively analyze this two-way interactive relationship,first we chose the logistics prosperity index as the main indicator to measure logistics activities and after comprehensively considering all aspects of the macro-economy,selected the total retail sales of social logistics consumer goods,consumer price index and industrial added value above designated size as macroeconomic indicators.Next,using the month-on-month data,we constructed a vector autoregressive model to analyze the change mechanism of the coupling relationship between the various indicators.Afterwards,we introduced the freight volume index into the model,and by comparing the model before and after the introduction,further verified that the logistics prosperity index is tightly associated with the consumer price index and the total retail sales of social consumer goods.