基于AHP-熵权混合DEA的铁路沿线外部环境风险评价

External Environmental Risk Assessment Along the Railway Based on AHP-Entropy Weight Hybrid DEA

铁路设施设备常年暴露在外,铁路沿线自然环境和社会环境等外部条件复杂多变,给铁路外部环境安全带来巨大威胁。为识别和评价铁路外部环境风险,从自然环境、社会环境两个方面选取30个风险因素建立铁路外部环境风险评价指标体系。运用AHP-熵权法对风险指标组合赋权,并以风险发生的概率和后果为DEA决策变量,应用基于DEA的风险评价方法对铁路外部环境风险决策单元进行评价和排序。结果显示,侵入铁路限界风险处于风险极大值,其后依次为安全保护区内违法生产经营、自然天气影响等风险。铁路外部环境安全管理部门可根据评价排序结果科学安排铁路外部环境风险预防与控制工作,保障铁路运输平稳高效运行。

Railway facilities and equipment are exposed to the outside all year round,and the external conditions such as the natural environment and social environment along the railway are complex and changeable,which poses a huge threat to the safety of the external environment of the railway.In this paper,by identifying the external environmental risk of the railway,30 risk factors were selected to establish the evaluation index system of the external environmental risk of the railway.The AHP-entropy weight method was used to assign weights to the combination of risk indicators,and the probability and consequences of risk occurrence were used as DEA decision variables.The risk assessment method based on DEA was applied to evaluate and rank the decision-making units of railway external environmental risks.The results show that the risk of intrusion into the railway boundary is at its maximum value,followed by risks such as illegal production and operation within the safety protection zone and natural weather impact.The railway external environmental safety management department can scientifically arrange the prevention and control of railway external environmental risks based on the evaluation ranking results,ensuring the smooth and efficient operation of railway transportation.