可再生能源技术创新与行业碳减排——基于中国省级面板数据的实证检验

Renewable Energy Technology Innovation and Industry Carbon Emission Reduction:An Empirical Test Based on China's Provincial Panel Data

可再生能源技术创新是我国建设新型能源体系的重要保障,是实现“双碳”目标的重要手段,也是减排不减生产力的重要支柱。基于分位数面板模型与空间杜宾模型,利用2000—2019年中国内地30个省份9个行业面板数据,实证分析可再生能源技术创新的行业碳减排效应及其在不同经济发展阶段、地区的异质性表现。结果表明,可再生能源技术创新对不同行业碳排放的影响存在较大差异,碳减排效果与行业特征、区域环境及经济发展阶段密切相关。具体地,低碳排放行业率先发挥可再生能源技术创新的碳减排效应,以重工业、能源生产相关行业为代表的高碳排放行业对碳排放未见显著抑制作用,与居民生活、城镇化发展联系紧密的行业碳排放不减反增。可再生能源技术创新对不同行业的碳减排效应随着时间推移均得到强化。基于研究结论,针对性提出持续推进可再生能源技术创新与转化、统筹推进可再生能源技术在不同区域与产业的差异化应用、注重居民低碳行为引导和加强合作交流等建议。研究有助于深入考察可再生能源技术创新对行业碳减排的影响,为针对性制定行业碳减排政策提供事实依据。

In order to achieve the goals of"peak carbon"and"carbon neutrality",China has been promoting renewable energy technology innovation as a key carbon reduction measure in China's energy production,industry,transportation and construction industries.However,its carbon reduction effect has not been given sufficient attention by academics.At this critical period when China is promoting a comprehensive low-carbon transition in its economic and social development,a scientific assessment of the effect of renewable energy technology innovation on carbon emissions is essential to understand the status of carbon emission reduction in various industries,assess the carbon reduction potential of renewable energy technologies,and further choose the low-carbon pathways.This paper empirically analyzes the effect of renewable energy technology innovation on carbon emission using the quantile panel model and spatial Durbin model based on the patent data of renewable energy technology innovation in 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2019,corresponding to nine industry-level carbon emission data,as well as economic-social related characteristic variables,and further dissects its heterogeneous effect and possible causes in different regions and development stages.It is found that the effects of renewable energy technology innovation on carbon dioxide emissions vary significantly across industries,and the effect is closely related to industry characteristics,regional environment,and economic development stage.Specifically,renewable energy technology innovation has taken the lead in carbon emission reduction among the low-emission industries,which is mainly related to the electrification degree and technological characteristics of these industries.At the same time,the effect of carbon emission reduction is closely related to the development stage of the industry,and the advantage of industry development in the eastern region enables the carbon emission reduction of renewable energy technology to be better exerted.There is no evidence that renewable energy technology innovation has a significant inhibiting effect on carbon emissions in heavy industry and energy production-related industries which are mainly related to the fossil energy technology and institutional lock-in in high-emission industries.Coupled with the relatively long operational life of energy-related infrastructure,the introduction,digestion and absorption of renewable energy technology in these industries still takes some time.In contrast,with the advantage of"weak lock-in",geographical resources and policy in the western region,renewable energy technology innovation has taken the lead in achieving carbon emission reductions in energy production-related industries.Furthermore,the high energy rebound effect in sectors closely linked to residential life and urbanization,such as housing,services,construction,and transport,especially during the rapid economic and social development phase,has resulted in the impact of renewable energy technology innovation on carbon emissions being statistically invalid,or even increasing rather than decreasing.In addition,it is noteworthy that the effect of renewable energy technology innovation on carbon emissions reduction among different sectors has been strengthened over time.Then it is proposed to continue to encourage the innovation and transformation of renewable energy technologies,promote the differentiated application of renewable energy technologies in different regions and industries,focus on low-carbon behavior of residents,and strengthen inter-regional cooperation and exchange.The existing studies mostly use industrial technology innovation,low-carbon technology innovation and green technology innovation as the core explanatory variables to explore their carbon reduction performance,and because there are subsets of technologies with different characteristics and emission reduction mechanisms,their findings cannot be directly transferred to the carbon emission reduction experience of renewable energy technology innovation.This paper focuses on the effect of renewable energy technology innovation on carbon emissions,and incorporates regions and sectors into a unified analytical framework to reveal the carbon reduction performance of renewable energy technology innovations and their carbon reduction processes across regions and sectors,which responds to the theoretical relationship between renewable energy technology innovation and carbon emissions from the perspective of industry heterogeneity.Moreover,combined with practical investigations and reports,it further explores the potential causes of the heterogeneous effect of renewable energy technology innovation on carbon emissions among different regions and industries,providing a comprehensive factual basis for industry-level technology carbon emission reduction and policy formulation.