新型城镇化试点对农业面源污染的影响——基于多期DID的验证

Impact of New-type Urbanization Pilot on Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution:Verification Using DID with Multiple Time Periods

探究新型城镇化如何影响农业面源污染,对推进农业农村绿色发展,全面推进乡村振兴战略具有重要意义。利用2007—2019年我国159个地级城市的面板数据,借助多期双重差分方法,可评估新型城镇化试点政策对农业面源污染的影响效应。研究发现,新型城镇化试点政策能够有效减少农业面源污染排放。影响机制分析表明,新型城镇化试点政策通过加强环境规制、促进农业绿色技术进步来缓解农业面源污染。冲击分析表明,我国东、中、西部地区以及大、中、小规模城市对新型城镇化试点的冲击表现出较大差异。目前实施的新型城镇化试点政策能有效减少东部城市、大规模城市的农业面源污染排放,但对中西部城市、中小规模城市的农业面源污染排放不构成显著影响。

To promote the green development in agriculture and rural area,as well as the rural revitaliza-tion strategy,it is of great significance to explore how new type of urbanization affects agricultural non-point source pollution(ANSP).Based on the panel data of 159 prefecture cities of China between 2007 and 2019,the influential effect of new-type urbanization pilot policies on ANSP is evaluated using Difference-in-Differences(DID)with Multiple Time Periods.The result shows that the new-type urbanization pilot policies can effectively reduce ANSP discharge.An analysis of the influencing mechanism reveals that the policies relieve ANSP discharge by enhancing environmental regulation and agricultural green technology.An impact analysis reveals that the impact on new-type urbanization pilot differs significantly depending on the city’s size and location in the eastern,middle,or western part of the country.The current new-type ur-banization pilot policies can effectively reduce the ANSP discharge of eastern cities and large cities,while the influence is insignificant on middle and western cities and cities of medium and small sizes.