数字普惠金融畅通国内国际双循环的机理及效应研究

Study on the Mechanism and Effect of Digital Inclusive Finance in Smoothing Domestic and International Dual Circulation

畅通国内国际双循环是推进中国式现代化的实践创新,数字普惠金融作为推动中国经济增长的新动能,探究其对畅通双循环发展的相关机理和效应具有重要意义。利用2011—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据进行实证研究,结果表明:数字普惠金融能够通过提升创业活跃度有效推动中国经济实现国内国际双循环发展;时间层面上,数字普惠金融对双循环发展的推动效应呈现指数倍增特征;空间层面上,其推动效应呈现空间异质性,在中西部地区更加突出,在东部地区却并不显著。据此,从完善国家金融体系、推动数字普惠金融创新、提升数实融合水平以及加强金融监管四个方面提出相应的政策建议。

The unblocking of the domestic and international dual circulation is a practical innovation to promote China's modernization.Digital inclusive finance,as a new driving force for China's economic growth,plays a crucial role in facilitating the development of the unblocked dual circulation.This study aims to explore the mechanisms and effects of digital inclusive finance in contributing to the development of the unblocked dual circulation.Empirical analysis using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2011 and 2020 reveals that digital inclusive finance effectively promotes domestic and international dual-loop development by stimulating entrepreneurial activity.Furthermore,the impact of digital inclusive finance on the dual circulation is found to be exponentially amplified over time.In terms of spatial variation,the driving effect of digital inclusive finance is more pronounced in the central and western regions,while it is not significant in the eastern regions.Based on these findings,four corresponding proposals are put forward:enhancing the national financial system,promoting innovation in digital inclusive finance,strengthening the integration of the digital and real economies,and enhancing financial regulation.