基于全球价值链视角的中俄产业合作研究

Research OnIndustrial Cooperation Between China andRussia from the Perspective of Global Value Chains

使用2021版增加值贸易(TiVA)数据,采用出口增加值分解、全球价值链参与度和显性比较优势方法测度并比较中国和俄罗斯参与全球价值链的特征。研究发现,由于受到欧美国家主导的全球价值链“萎缩”、新旧全球价值链交替过渡期以及国内大循环增强等多重因素影响,中国全球价值链参与度下降。俄罗斯依托自然资源禀赋优势形成了以原材料、能源出口为主的贸易模式,处于全球产业链上游,全球价值链参与度水平始终处于较高水平,但并不稳定。中俄之间初级产业和制造业存在一定的互补性,服务业互补性相对较弱。俄乌冲突促使俄罗斯“战略东转”的全球战略布局不断推进,全球价值链“萎缩”“重叠”“断链”迫使中国亟须寻求新的合作伙伴重塑全球价值链分工,中俄开展基于全球价值链的产业合作前景广阔。传统能源产业可构建生产商或采购商驱动的价值链合作模式,中低技术制造业可采用产业转移模式进行合作,中高技术制造业、高技术制造业和服务业应采用协同发展现代服务业,共同促进生产性服务业与高端制造业融合的价值链合作模式。

This paper uses the data of 2021 edition of Value Added Trade(TiVA)to measure and compare the characteristics of China’s and Russia’s participation in the Global Value Chains(GVC s)by means of export value added decomposition,GVC s participation and comparative advantage.The results show that China’s participation in GVC s is declining due to the“shrinkage”of GVC s,the transition period of the old and new GVC s,and the strengthening of domestic great circulation.Relying on natural resource endowment,Russia has formed a trade mode dominated by raw materials and energy exports.It is in the upstream of the GVC s and its participation is always at a high level,but it is not stable.There is a certain degree of complementarity between China and Russia in the primary and manufacturing industry,and relatively weak complementarity in service industry.The Russia-Ukraine conflict pushes forward Russia’s global strategic layout of“strategic eastward shift”.The“shrinking”,“overlapping”and“chain breaking”of the GVC s force China to urgently seek new partners to reshape GVC s.The traditional energy industry can build a value chain cooperation mode driven by producers or purchasers,the medium and low technology manufacturing industry can adopt the industrial transfer mode for cooperation,and the medium and high technology manufacturing industry,high technology manufacturing industry and service industry should adopt the coordinated development of modern service industry,and jointly promote the integration of producer services and high-end manufacturing industry.