稳增长和防风险双重目标下最优居民部门杠杆率测度

Measure the Optimal Leverage Ratio Under the Dual Objectives of Stabilizing Growth and Preventing Risks

居民部门杠杆率是宏观杠杆率的重要组成部分,对经济增长和金融风险都有显著影响,在我国稳增长、防风险的背景下,测度其最优杠杆率水平十分必要。本文对居民部门杠杆率与经济增长以及金融风险的关系进行了理论分析,并利用我国2006—2020年省级面板数据进行了实证检验,发现居民部门杠杆率与经济增长呈倒“U”型关系,与金融风险呈“U”型关系;我国最优居民部门杠杆率阈值区间为[44.99%,61.51%]。从全国层面来看,我国居民部门杠杆率水平已超过最优区间;从区域层面来看,不同省份差异较大,总体呈现出东部地区较高、中部地区较低、西部地区几种情况并存的特征。因此,我国的居民部门杠杆率政策需因地制宜,并在保持总体杠杆率稳中有降的政策下,辅以其他手段来激发消费潜力。

As an important part of macro leverage,household leverage has a significant influence on economic growth and financial risk.Under the background of stabilizing growth and preventing risk in our country,it is necessary to measure its optimal level of leverage ratio.The paper makes a theoretical analysis of the relationship between residential leverage ratio and economic growth and financial risk,and makes an empirical test using the provincial panel data from 2006 to 2020.It is found that residential leverage ratio has an inverted"U"-shaped relationship with economic growth,and a"U"-shaped relationship with financial risk.The threshold of leverage of optimal residents in China is[44.99,61.51].From the national level,the rod rate level of Chinese residents has exceeded the optimal range;From the regional level,there are large differences among different provinces,which generally show the characteristics of high in the eastern region,low in the central region,and coexistence of several conditions in the western region.Therefore,the adjustment policy of resident leverage ratio should be adapted according to local conditions and stimulate consumption potential with other means under the policy of keeping the overall leverage ratio stable and declining.