参数不确定条件下的油气站场安全完整性等级验证方法

Safety Integrity Level Verification Method of Oil and Gas Station Under Uncertain Parameters

为保证油气站场的安全运行,减少参数不确定性对安全完整性等级(SIL)验证的偏差,在分析SIL验证不确定性因素的基础上,分别利用蒙特卡洛和模糊理论建立参数概率分布已知、参数概率分布未知情况下的SIL验证流程,并从置信度、合规性概率的角度分别评价两种方法,以站场储罐区的高完整性压力保护系统(HIPPS)为例进行了验证分析。结果表明:基于蒙特卡洛模拟得到的极限结果在模糊理论结果的区间范围内,证明了模糊理论的保守性更强;不同水平截集下的SIL结果有所不同,采用质心法进行解模糊化得到的SIL结果比最大隶属度法更具客观性。蒙特卡洛模拟和模糊理论结果得到的SIL验证等级一致,对于不同工况、不同时刻下的SIL等级动态定量评估具有重要意义。

To ensure the safe operation of oil and gas stations,and reduce the deviation of parameter uncertainty to the verification of safety integrity level,on the basis of analyzing the uncertainty factors of SIL validation,SIL validation processes under the condition of known probability distribution of parameters and unknown probability distribution of parameters are established with Monte Carlo and fuzzy theory respectively.The two methods are evaluated from the perspective of confidence and compliance probability.They are verified with the example of the high integrity protection system(HIPPS)in the storage tank area of the station.The results show that the Monte Carlo simulation results are within the range of the fuzzy theory results,which proves that the fuzzy theory is more conservative,the SIL results are different under different level cut sets.The SIL results obtained by the centroid method are more objective than those obtained by the maximum membership method.The results of Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy theory share the same SIL verification level.It is of great significance for the dynamic quantitative evaluation of SIL level under different working conditions and different time.