草地贪夜蛾发生潜势的气象适宜度等级预报

Forecasting the meteorological suitability grades for occurrence potential of fall armyworm,Spodoptera fru-giperda(J.E.Smith)in China

探索草地贪夜蛾(Spodoptera frugiperda(J. E. Smith))气象监测预警模式,对倡导农作物病虫害绿色防控理念和达到一类虫害预警、防治、安全的农业生产目标具有重要意义。基于2019-2020年全国各省草地贪夜蛾虫情监测资料和相应气象资料,利用相关分析、回归分析、加权列联表分析等方法,模拟草地贪夜蛾繁育为害阶段发生程度与气象因子的关系,为害虫预报预测和保障粮食生产安全提供科学依据。结果表明:影响草地贪夜蛾繁育为害的主要气象因子为温度,气温高有利于草地贪夜蛾卵孵化、幼虫取食为害和蛹存活,但过高的温度则抑制其发生发展;影响草地贪夜蛾繁育为害阶段的关键气象因子包括上年冬季平均气温、当年3月平均气温、4月平均气温、5月上旬平均最低气温、5月(或5月上旬)平均气温、6月平均气温、7月日最高气温≥35℃的天数;其中,7月日最高气温≥35℃的天数与草地贪夜蛾繁育为害程度呈显著负相关,其余关键气象因子与草地贪夜蛾为害程度呈显著正相关;利用加权列联表分析法,确定各关键因子与草地贪夜蛾年发生程度的相关系数和权重系数,建立分区域虫害发生潜势的气象等级动态预报模型。经回代检验,逐月动态预报模型拟合准确率在95%以上;对2021年发生等级进行外推预报,“基本一致”准确率达80%以上,效果较好。模型可用于草地贪夜蛾发生潜势的监测和预报。

Exploring the meteorological monitoring and warning model of Spodoptera frugiperda is of great signifi-cance for advocating green prevention and control idea of crop diseases and pests,and achieving the goals of early warning,control of first-category crop pest and safe agricultural production.We analyzed the relationships between the occurrence degrees of S.frugiperda and the meteorological factors based on S.frugiperda monitoring data and meteorological data in each province in China during 2019-2020.The meteorological forecasting models of occur-rence potential of S.frugiperda in different regions were established by using correlation method,regression analy-sis,and weighted contingency table analysis method.The objective of this study was to provide scientific basis for pest forecasting and food production safety.The results showed that air temperature was the main meteorological fac-tor affecting the occurrence and development of S.frugiperda,and that high temperature was beneficial for its egg hatching,larval feeding,and pupa surviving.Excessively high temperature inhibited its occurrence and develop-ment.The key meteorological factors affecting the occurrence and development of S.frugiperda in different regions were average air temperature in previous winter,March,April,May or the early May,June and average minimum air temperature in the early May,and days of daily maximum air temperature more than 35℃in July.There was a significantly negative correlation between the occurrence degree of S.frugiperda and the days of maximum air tem-perature more than 35℃in July.The other key meteorological factors were significantly positively correlated with the occurrence degree of S.frugiperda.The meteorological suitability index of S.frugiperda occurrence potential was calculated and the dynamic occurrence potential forecasting models of meteorological grade were established based on the correlation among the occurrence degree of S.frugiperda and key meteorological factors.Weight coefficients of different key meteorological factors were determined by the weighted contingency table analysis method.The hindcast accuracy of forecasting models was more than 95%,and the extrapolated accuracy of forecasting models was higher than 80%in 2021.The models could be used for monitoring and forecasting of meteorological suitability grades for occurrence potential of S.frugiperda in China.