东南亚武器贸易格局的时空演变

Spatio-temporal evolution of arms trade pattern in Southeast Asia

近年来东南亚国家持续加大武器装备采购,深入分析东南亚武器贸易格局的演变特征具有重要意义。在地区和国家两个层面,从武器进口渠道、进口价值、进口类型,武器出口范围、出口价值和出口优势空间等维度,结合中心度、社团划分等社会网络分析方法,对2001—2020年东南亚武器贸易格局时空演变进行分析。结果表明:(1)东南亚武器进口渠道的多元化程度正在逐步提升,武器进口增长迅速,东南亚正成为全球武器贸易新的热点地区;(2)东南亚武器进口具有明显的空间差异,各国武器进口价值呈梯次分布,武器进口类型受国土海陆分布影响明显,海空武器是东南亚武器采购的重点;(3)除中韩外,俄美等西方发达国家仍垄断着东南亚武器市场,这些发达国家的武器出口市场范围逐步扩大;(4)东南亚武器市场供应具有冷战时期的印记且竞争日趋激烈;(5)东南亚武器贸易网络主要包括以新加坡和美国、越南和俄罗斯、印度尼西亚和韩国、缅甸和中国为主要武器进出口国的四个社团,尽管不同时期社团内其他成员并不稳定,但总体上仍符合东西方武器贸易阵营的基本特征。最后,提出维护我国地缘安全利益的建议。

In recent years,Southeast Asian countries have continued to increase weapons and equipment procurement.It is of great significance to deeply analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of the pattern of Southeast Asian arms trade.From the regional and national levels,import value,import types,arms export scope,export value and export advantage space,combined with the social network analysis methods such as centrality and community division,this paper analyzed the evolution of the geographical pattern of the arms trade in Southeast Asia from 2001 to 2020.The results show that:(1)The diversity of arms import channels in Southeast Asia is gradually increasing,the value of arms imports is growing rapidly,and Southeast Asia has become a new hot spot of global arms trade;(2)There are obvious spatial differences in arms imports in Southeast Asia.The arms import values of various countries are distributed in echelons.The types of arms imports are affected by the land-sea distribution of the territory.Sea and air weapons are the focus of weapons procurement in Southeast Asia;(3)In addition to China and South Korea,Southeast Asia's arms market is still monopolized by Russia,the US and other Western developed countries,whose arms export market scope is gradually expanding;(4)The supply of weapons market in Southeast Asia bears the imprint of the Cold War period,and the competition is becoming increasingly fierce;(5)The Southeast Asian arms trade network mainly includes four associations with Singapore and the United States,Vietnam and Russia,Indonesia and South Korea,Myanmar and China as the main arms importing and exporting countries respectively.Although other members of the association were unstable in different periods,they still accord with the basic characteristics of the East and West arms trade camp on the whole.