双循环格局下中国邮轮客源市场的空间格局与分级开发

Spatial pattern and hierarchical development of the cruisepassenger market in China under a double-cycle pattern

邮轮旅游客源市场预测作为是旅游科学决策的重要研究领域。论文引入引力模型,在邮轮旅游供需关系基础上,添加人口流动限制和邮轮航线因素对引力模型进行修正,发现2011—2019年我国邮轮客源开发的空间格局特征及规律,并运用竞争态模型对不同邮轮母港的客源市场进行分级并提出开发对策。主要发现如下:(1)国内客源市场分布从总体上呈现出明显的东部指向和近域指向特征。(2)邻近港口在客源结构上表现出一定的同质性。上海港和武汉港的客源市场结构存在一定相似性,位于环渤海地区的天津港、大连港以及青岛港在客源市场结构分布上也存在着一定的相似性。(3)三亚港的邮轮客源市场以远距离游客为主,特异性显著,与其他港口吸引力遵循的空间距离衰减规律相悖。研究内容拓展了引力模型在邮轮旅游市场研究中的应用深度,为客源市场开发以及疫后邮轮市场恢复提供了实践参考。

This research paper delves into the important study field of predicting the cruise tourism market in the context of tourism science decision-making.The paper introduces the gravity model,which incorporates migration restrictions and cruise line correction factors to the supply-demand relationship of cruise tourism,to discover the spatial pattern and developmental law of China's cruise tourism market from 2011-2019.Utilizing the competitive state model,the paper proposes graded development strategies for the tourist markets of different cruise home ports.Research findings include:(1)China's domestic tourist source market presents regional differences primarily along the"Hu line",with significant eastward and near-domain oriented characteristics;(2)neighboring ports demonstrate homogeneity within their tourist source structures,such as the similarities in tourist market structure between Shanghai port and Wuhan port;(3)Sanya Port's cruise passenger source market highlights the significant specificity of long-distance tourists,contradicting the spatial distance attenuation law observed in the attraction of other ports.With the application of the gravity model,this study expands the depth of cruise tourism market research,providing a practical reference for passenger market development and post-COVID-19 cruise market recovery.