风险感知对城市景区密集人群不安全行为的影响研究

Research on the impact of risk perception on the unsafe behavior of dense crowds in urban scenic spots

随着旅游业的持续升温,城市景区接待压力日益增加。为探究疫情背景下城市景区密集人群风险感知规律,降低游客出游风险,基于Sitkin-Pablo模型,剖析密集人群情景下个体风险感知对不安全行为产生的作用机理,构建包含风险偏好、风险感知以及不安全行为的三维风险感知理论模型;从而构建风险感知结构方程模型(SEM),并依据451份有效数据对模型进行实证检验,最终达到提高景区决策科学性的目的。结果表明:风险感知对游客不安全行为有直接显著的负向作用,且社会心理风险感知对不安全行为的影响效应最大;风险感知偏好对游客不安全行为有直接显著的正向作用,且行为意向偏好对不安全行为的影响效应最大。

To explore the law of risk perception of dense population in urban scenic spots under the background of the epidemic situation,and to reduce the risk of tourists,this study is based on the Sitkin-Pablo model,and takes"risk perception"and"unsafe behavior"as the starting point to analyze the mechanism of individual risk perception on unsafe behavior in dense crowd situations.Using the combination of text analysis and grounded theory to extract the risk perception factors of dense crowds in urban scenic spots,16 main categories were formed.After classification,4 main categories were finally determined,including night travel risk,personal safety risk,organizational risk,and social-psychological risk.Thereby a three-dimensional risk perception model including risk preference,risk perception,and unsafe behavior was constructed;The scale was designed according to the research framework and theoretical assumptions.SPSS software was used for reliability and validity analysis and exploratory factor analysis.The reliability and validity of the scale were above 0.8,which was in line with the exploratory factor analysis index.It was considered that the questionnaire has good reliability and can be used for further research;Through the construction of the risk perception structural equation model(SEM)and Bootstrap intermediary test method,the model was empirically tested according to 451 valid data,and the internal logical relationship between risk perception and risk response behavior was analyzed,to finally achieve the purpose of improving the scientificity of scenic spot decision-making.The results show that:risk perception has a direct and significant negative effect on tourists'unsafe behaviors,and social psychological risk perception has the greatest impact on unsafe behaviors;risk perception preference has a direct and significant positive effect on tourists'unsafe behaviors,and behavioral intention preference has the greatest effect on unsafe behaviors;finally,from the perspective of risk perception and risk perception preference,this paper puts forward management and control strategies.