基于随机Petri网的多式联运系统致脆因素影响机理研究

Influence Mechanism of Embrittlement Factors in Multimodal Freight Transport System Based on Stochastic Petri Net

多式联运系统运行过程复杂,其运行效能易受多重致脆因素的影响。在分析多式联运系统特征的基础上,提炼其关键致脆因素,并构建多式联运系统致脆因素影响机理的概念模型。通过构建基于概念模型的随机Petri网模型及其同构的马尔可夫链,并引入随机时间变量,刻画不同致脆因素影响下的多式联运系统动态演化过程。最后,以我国南方某生鲜农产品公司的“公-铁-水”冷链物流多式联运项目为例,通过情景仿真,分析不同致脆因素对该项目运作过程的影响。研究发现:征信调查利弊并存,应合理控制其深度与广度;其次应充分考虑货物的实际需求而非仅仅坚持经营人偏好,制定完善的预防措施和政策激励是保障多式联运高效运行的基本要求。

The operation of multimodal freight transport systems is complex,and their operational efficiency is easily affected by multiple embrittlement factors.Based on analyzing the characteristics of multimodal freight transport systems,the key embrittlement factors were extracted and a conceptual model of the influence mechanism of embrittlement factors on the multimodal systems was presented.By building a stochastic Petri net model based on the conceptual model and its isomorphic Markov chain,and introducing random time variables,the dynamic evolution of multimodal transport systems under the influence of different embrittlement factors was described.Finally,the“publicrail-water”multimodal cold chain logistics project of a fresh agricultural product company in southern China was taken as an example to analyze the influence of different embrittlement factors on the project operation through scenario simulations.This study shows that credit investigation has both advantages and disadvantages,and its depth and breadth should be reasonably controlled.Secondly,full consideration should be given to the actual needs of goods rather than excessively adhering to operator preferences.Additionally,the development of comprehensive preventive measures and policy incentives is a fundamental requirement for the efficient operation of multimodal freight transport.