清代中期以来喜马拉雅山脉两侧的边境战略行为分析——基于国家边境投射力视角

Explaining border strategic behavior across the Himalayan since Mid-Qing Dynasty: Based on the national border projected power

科学认识印度的边境战略对中国制定合理的对印政策措施具有重要意义。已有的研究难以解释在中印综合实力悬殊条件下,印度为何一直在中印边境地区挑衅和蚕食,很难为未来中国调整对印策略提供理论依据。本研究在构建国家边境投射力分析框架的基础上,选取乾隆时期、清代末期、中华人民共和国成立初期和2000年以后的近期为时间节点,结合历史文献和实地调研,解释不同时期喜马拉雅山脉两侧主要政治实体的边境战略行为,以史为鉴,为中国调整对印边境战略提供参考。结果表明:(1)国家边境投射力是政治实体选择边境战略的重要依据,综合国力、牵制力量、地缘距离和经贸往来是影响国家边境投射力的主要因素。(2)中国综合国力强盛,没有受到牵制力量的羁绊时,国家边境投射力投射强度增加,成为喜马拉雅地区边境战略行为中的强势方;反之,则会成为弱势方。(3)基于国家边境投射力分析框架,提出中国对印边境战略调整的方向,即评估中印两国的国家边境投射力变化、重视外部牵制力量、加强中国国家边境投射力的投射强度、推动边境贸易等。

A scientific understanding of India's border-strategy is of great significance for China to formulate reasonable strategies towards India.Existing studies cannot explain why India has been provoking and encroachment in the Sino-India border area under the condition of the wide gap in comprehensive power between China and India,and it is difficult to provide a theoretical basis for China to adjust its strategy towards India in the future.Based on the framework of national border projected power,the paper chooses 4 time nodes,and combines historical studies and field work resources to explain Sino-India border strategic behavior in different historical phases.The results show that:①National border projected power is the fundamental cause of national border strategic behavior.The national border projected power is mainly affected by comprehensive national power,restrictive power,geo-distance,trade relations.②When China's comprehensive national power is powerful and unencumbered by restrictive power,the intensity of its national border projected power will rise,which will promote China to become the dominant side in the border strategic behavior of the Himalayan region,vice versa.③Based on the analytical framework,it is suggested that China should accurately evaluate the changes of the Sino-India national border projected power,scientifically place more emphases on the containment of external restrictive power,and reasonably enhance national projected power allocating in the border area,so as to actively respond to India's military adventures in the border area.