南非沿海地区可持续发展评价研究

Sustainable development assessment in South African coastal areas

南非是中国“一带一路”倡议中对非合作的重要伙伴。除以约翰内斯堡为中心的豪登省之外,南非经济主要集中在沿海地区,分析南非沿海地区的可持续发展可为中南高质量合作提供借鉴。结合遥感数据与社会经济统计数据,基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型构建了可持续发展的评价指标体系,采用定量方法,对2002—2018年南非沿海地区的可持续发展水平及区域内各省区可持续发展差异进行长时段多维度的综合评价与分析。研究发现:(1)2002—2018年各区域压力、状态、响应因子值总体呈上升趋势;夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省与东开普省压力因子值高于其他地区;各区域状态因子值保持相对稳定,但西部沿海的纳马夸区与其他省份差异显著,状态因子值不到其他省份的1/2;响应因子中纳马夸区与西开普省等西部沿海地区提升最为显著,区域差距逐渐缩小。(2)2002—2018年南非沿海地区可持续发展水平从0.460增加到0.529;可持续发展水平区域差异不断缩小,东开普省、夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省可持续发展综合指数排名靠前,可持续发展水平呈不断提升的态势。南非沿海地区可持续发展潜力巨大,东开普省、夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省或可成为“一带一路”建设与中南合作中的优势区域。

South Africa is an important partner of China's cooperation with Africa in the"Belt and Road"Initiative.Analyzing the sustainable development of South African coastal areas will provide a reference for high-quality cooperation between China and South Africa.Combining remote sensing data and statistical data,a sustainable development assessment index system was constructed based on the pressure-state-response(PSR)model to analysis the level of sustainable development and differences in the coastal areas of South Africa from 2002 to 2018.The research results show that:(1)The pressure,status,and response factors of various regions increased from 2002 to 2018,the pressure index values of KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape provinces were higher than those of other regions;the state index values of each region remained relatively stable and increase,and the Namakwa District was obviously different from other regions,less than half of other provinces;among the response index values,the Namakwa District and Western Cape province had improved rapidly,and the regional gap has gradually narrowed.(2)The level of sustainable development in South Africa coastal areas increased from 0.460 to 0.529 from 2002 to 2018.The regional difference in the level of sustainable development continued to shrink,Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal province ranked high by the comprehensive sustainable development index,and the sustainable development of coastal regions were constantly improving.The coastal areas of South Africa had enormous potential for sustainable development,and Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal province may be the ideal areas for China-South Africa cooperation in the"Belt and Road".