中国主要农产品进口风险演变特征与应对策略

Characteristics of China's Major Agricultural Import Risks and Response Strategies

党的二十大报告要求“确保粮食、能源资源、重要产业链供应链安全”。评估并降低主要农产品进口风险,对于保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本文从市场贸易、流通运输、政治经济三个方面构建指标体系,评价了2001年以来中国主要农产品的进口风险水平及其演变特征。结果表明,中国农产品进口风险总体趋于增加,进口来源高度集中、进口规模巨大;五大主要品种中,谷物、肉类的进口风险趋于下降,奶类进口风险波动较小,油料、糖料进口风险处于高位;进口风险种类包括高对外依存度风险、价差驱动风险、进口来源集中风险、政治经济风险与运输风险;进口风险受金融危机全球贸易网络传导、中美贸易摩擦升级与新冠疫情等多重因素影响。建议从立足大食物观优化农产品进口布局与政策设计、注重全球农产品供应链治理、积极推进自贸区及全球农业经贸合作、强化对全球农产品贸易市场运行风险的监测与调控等方面综合施策,切实降低农产品进口风险,确保国家粮食安全。

The report of the 20th Party Congress calls for“ensuring the security of food,energy resources,and important industrial chains supply chains”.It is important to assess and reduce the import risks of China's major agricultural products to ensure national food security.The paper constructs an index system from three aspects:market trade,circulation and transportation,and political economy,and evaluates the level of import risks of China's major agricultural products and its evolution characteristics since 2001.The results show that the overall risk of China's agricultural imports tends to increase,with a high concentration of import sources and a huge import scale.Among the five major varieties,the import risk of cereals and meat tends to decline,the import risk of dairy is less volatile,the import risk of oilseeds and sugar is at a high level.Import risk categories include high external dependency risk,price difference driven risk,import source concentration risk,political economy risk and transportation risk.Import risk is affected by multiple factors such as the financial crisis global trade network transmission,the Sino-US trade frictions upgrading and the outbreak of COVID-19.It is recommended that comprehensive measures could be taken to effectively reduce the risk of imported agricultural products and promote the national food security whole from the aspects of optimizing the import layout and policy design of agricultural products based on the view of big food,emphasizing the governance of global agricultural supply chain,proactively promoting the free trade zone and global agricultural economic and trade cooperation,and strengthening the monitoring and regulation of the operational risks of global agricultural trade market.