摘要
[目的]预测分析北京养老机构护理型床位需求与缺口,为促进北京市养老机构护理型床位建设提供参考。[方法]通过档案记录收集法等获取北京市老年人口数据、北京市养老机构护理型床位配置数据,采用时间序列分析法ARIMA模型预测2022-2026年北京市户籍老年人口数量,并对北京市护理型床位的需求及可能存在的缺口进行预测及分析。[结果]到2026年,北京市护理型床位缺口为-39069~36161张,可以满足实际入住机构的老年人的最低需求,但距离满足政策预期目标仍有较大差距。[结论]北京市或将依然存在人口结构进一步老龄化、护理型床位供给量仍难满足政策目标等问题。
Objective To forecast and analyze the demand and gap of nursing beds in Beijing elderly care institutions,and provide references for promoting the construction of nursing beds in Beijing elderly care institutions.Methods The data of Beijing elderly population and the data of nursing beds in Beijing elderly care institutions were obtained through archival record and collection.The number of registered elderly population in Beijing from 2022 to 2026 was predicted by time series analysis model ARIMA,and the demand and gap of nursing beds in Beijing were predicted and analyzed.Results By 2026,the gap of nursing beds in Beijing would be-39069~36161,which can meet the minimum needs of the elderly actually staying in institutions,but there was still a big gap to meet the expected goals of the policy.Conclusions Beijing may still have problems such as further aging of the population structure,and the supply of nursing beds is still difficult to meet the policy objectives.
作者
朱浩然
李小明
刘志
景丽伟
蔺建宇
ZHU Haoran;LI Xiaoming;LIU Zhi;JING Liwei;LIN Jianyu(Capital Medical University,Beijing 100069,China;North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan Hebei 063210,China;China National Health Development Research Center,Beijing 100044,China;Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100020,China)
出处
《卫生软科学》
2023年第8期38-42,共5页
Soft Science of Health
基金
北京市社会科学基金重点项目-健康公平视角下北京居家照护服务整合模式研究(21SRA003)。
关键词
护理型床位
养老机构
时间序列
ARIMA模型
需求预测
nursing beds
elderly care institutions
time series
model ARIMA
prediction of the demand
