后工业社会低生育理论视角下我国低生育问题探析

Analysis on China’s Low Fertility from the Perspective of Low Fertility Theory in Post-industrial Society

在全球人口结构转型背景下,世界上大多数国家或地区的生育水平正经历着由高到低的下降过程,我国目前已处于极低生育率水平。研究我国当前低生育水平和人们的低生育意愿,离不开低生育的全球化背景。第二次人口转变理论、性别平等理论、进度效应理论和低生育率陷阱假说可以解答我国低生育率问题。建议在厘清诸种低生育率理论对我国实用性的基础上,立足我国生育转变具有混合和浓缩的特征,构建起中国特色的生育理论,为我国应对人口负增长形势提供参考。

In the context of global population structure transition,most countries or regions are experiencing a decline in fertility levels,and China is currently at an extremely low fertility level.Understanding China’s low fertility level and people’s low fertility willingness requires consideration of the global background of low fertility.Besides,the second population transition theory,gender equality theory,progress effect theory,and low fertility trap hypothesis all offer insights into China’s low fertility rate.To address this issue and provide guidance for China to cope with negative population growth,a fertility theory with Chinese characteristics should be constructed based on the practicability of various low fertility theories in China.