“一带一路”倡议对中国—东盟国家的双边贸易效应——基于结构引力模型分析

The Bilateral Trade Effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on China-ASEAN Countries:An Analysis Based on Structural Gravity Model

“一带一路”倡议提出后,中国—东盟双边贸易快速增加。目前,中国与东盟已形成稳定的、互为最大贸易伙伴的关系。从货物贸易、服务贸易、数字贸易三个角度深入分析“一带一路”倡议提出后,中国与东盟国家间贸易发展格局的变化及相关特征事实,具有重要意义。为测算“一带一路”倡议带来的双边贸易效应,基于结构引力模型,采用泊松极大伪似然法进行估计,结果显示该倡议促进双边贸易平均增加了10.5%。在对研究结论进行总结后,讨论对中国与东盟的未来发展预期与面临的风险,并提出政策建议。

Since the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed,economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN countries has been increasing.At present,China and ASEAN have formed a stable and mutual largest partnership for each other.From the perspectives of trade in goods,services and digital trade,this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the changes in the pattern of trade development and the relevant economic characteristics between China and ASEAN after the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative.In order to quantitatively measure the trade effect of the Belt and Road Initiative,this paper constructs a structural gravity model and uses Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method to estimate the results,which show that the initiative promoted an average increase of 10.5%in bilateral trade in the last decade.After summarizing the research conclusions,this paper discusses the future development expectations and risks faced by China and ASEAN,and puts forward policy recommendations.