日军细菌战与健康人力资本

Japanese Biological Warfare Attacks and Health Human Capital

战争会对平民的健康造成威胁,而健康人力资本又在经济发展中扮演着重要角色。尽管当代经验证据较多,但仍然缺乏在长期中可供检验的历史经验证据。本文利用长达近七十年的瘟疫历史数据和人口普查微观数据,检验了日军在侵华时期所实施的霍乱、鼠疫及伤寒细菌战攻击对相应瘟疫流行扩散和平民生存率的影响。研究发现,日军在战区进行霍乱、伤寒和鼠疫细菌战攻击后,对应瘟疫传播距离分别达250千米、50千米和25千米;同时,离细菌战中心每近100千米,生存率平均下降约8个百分点。本文结论说明,生物武器攻击所造成的人力资本损失不容忽视,战争的特殊性也决定着经济发展的方向。

War poses a threat to civilian health which plays a key role in economic development.Despite the abundance of contemporary empirical evidence,historical empirical evidence over the long run is limited.This paper uses nearly 70-year data of epidemic history and micro-data of population census to examine effects of the Japanese army􀆳s cholera,plague,and typhoid bacteri-al warfare attacks on the corresponding epidemic spread and civilian survival rates during the Japa-nese War of Aggression against China.This paper finds that after the Japanese army launched at-tacks using cholera,typhoid,and plague bacteria in the war zones,the corresponding epidemic spread distance reached 250 km,50 km,and 25 km,respectively.In addition,for every 100 km closer to the center of the bacterial warfare,the average survival rate decreased by about 8 percent-age points.We conclude that the loss of human capital caused by biological weapons attacks can-not be ignored,and the nature of war also determines the direction of economic development.