守成还是求变?权力转移背景下霸权国的制度调适策略

Status Quo or Revisionist? Institutional Adaptation Strategies ofthe Hegemon against the Background of Power Transfer

在权力转移的背景下,制度竞争是大国竞争的一个重要形式。霸权国随着实力的相对衰落,制度收益受到侵蚀,需要进行制度调适以实现霸权护持。既有研究以权力转移理论和修正主义研究为基础,侧重于分析霸权国如何应对崛起国的改制要求,并对霸权国“退群”这一修正主义策略进行了剖析,但对于霸权国“不退群”时的制度调适策略关注不足。本文旨在回答霸权国何时为守成方,何时为求变方,以及霸权国分别采取何种制度调适策略。霸权国的制度目标决定其对既有国际制度的满意程度。当霸权国旨在维护制度权力优势时,霸权国对现状总体满意,属于守成方;当霸权国的目标是逆转物质利益损失时,霸权国则成为求变方。制度权力维度则进一步影响霸权国采取何种具体制度策略,霸权国的制度策略包括提供指定用途资金、应对改制要求、威胁退出制度和排外性多边主义四种。美国对联合国粮农组织、世界贸易组织、国际货币基金组织和万国邮政联盟采取的制度调适策略展现了上述逻辑。

Against the backdrop of power transition,institutional competition is an important form of great power rivalry.With the relative decline of the hegemon,its institutional benefits have been eroded,and it is imperative for the hegemon to make institutional adaptation to maintain its hegemonic position.Based on the power transition theory and revisionist research,the existing research focuses on how the hegemon responds to the institutional reform request of the emerging state,and analyzes the revisionist strategy of the hegemon to“exit the international institution”,but pays insufficient attention to its institutional adaptation strategies when“not exiting the international institution”.This paper aims to understand when the hegemon maintains status quo,and when it becomes the revisionist,and what institutional adaptation strategies it adopts.The institutional goal of the hegemon depends on the extent of its satisfaction with existing international institutions.When the hegemon aims to maintain its advantageous institutional power,it is the status-quo state satisfied with the current arrangements,and when its goal is to reverse material losses,the hegemon becomes the revisionist.The dimension of institutional power further affects the specific institutional strategies adopted by the hegemon,which include providing earmarked funds,responding to institutional reform request,threatening to withdraw from international institutions and exclusive multilateralism.The institutional adaptation strategies adopted by the U.S.towards the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization,the World Trade Organization,the International Monetary Fund and the Universal Postal Union illustrate the above logic.