保障性住房供给对新型城镇化的影响研究——基于城市面板数据的实证分析

A study on the impact of indemnificatory housing supply on new urbanization:Empirical analysis based on urban panel data

利用2010—2019年中国254个城市的面板数据,实证研究保障性住房供给对推进城镇化的影响效应和实现机制。研究发现,保障性住房供给对于城镇化率有显著的促进作用,其中公共租赁住房对于推进城镇化率的影响效应大于经济适用房和廉租住房,狭义的保障性住房的影响效应大于低价商品房以及其他更广义的保障性住房。机制分析表明,保障性住房供给主要通过预期效应对城镇化率产生影响,更完善的社会保障有利于进一步发挥保障性住房在推动新型城镇化进程中的作用和效果。着力推进保障性住房供给以解决“住有所居”问题是推进新型城镇化的关键,应当有针对性地优化保障性住房供给体系,并从扩大供给、全国统筹、协同推进三个方面提出了政策建议。

Using the panel data of 254 cities in China from 2010 to 2019, this paper empirically studies the impact and mechanism of indemnificatory housing supply on the promotion of urbanization. It is found that indemnificatory housing supply has a significant contribution to the urbanization rate, with the effect of public rental housing on advancing the urbanization rate being greater than that of affordable and low-cost housing. And the effect of indemnificatory housing in the narrow sense is better than that of low-priced commercial housing and other indemnificatory housing in a broader sense. Mechanism analysis shows that indemnificatory housing supply mainly affects the urbanization rate through the expected effect, and better social security is conducive to further exerting the impact of indemnificatory housing in promoting the New Urbanization. The research shows that promoting indemnificatory housing supply to solve the problem of "housing for all" is the key to promoting New Urbanization. The supply system of indemnificatory housing should be optimized in a targeted manner, and this paper makes policy recommendations from three aspects of expanding supply, national coordination and collaborative promotion.