川西农牧交错带“三生”空间冲突演变特征分析及模拟预测——以阿坝州四县为例

Analysis and simulation prediction of the evolutionary characteristics of the living-production-ecological spatial conflicts in the agriculture-pastoral ecotone in western Sichuan:Taking four counties in Aba Prefecture as examples

川西农牧交错带处于我国第一、第二阶梯的交替地带,是西部生态脆弱典型区,地势起伏显著,地形及生态环境复杂,积极开展川西农牧交错带“三生”空间冲突(生活、生产、生态)研究,将有助于川西农牧交错带生态安全保障与社会经济协调良性发展。研究区域为阿坝藏族羌族自治州四县(马尔康、理县、黑水、松潘),以2005—2020年土地利用数据为基础,通过CLUE-S软件模拟了未来的土地利用模式;将研究区域“三生”空间分为生活生产空间、生态生产空间、生产生态空间、生态空间4种类型,并建立空间冲突测算模型,对研究区域2005—2025年四期空间冲突水平进行了测算。结果表明:(1)2005—2025年四县域面积所占比重最大的是生态生产空间,之后依次为生态空间、生产生态空间、生活生产空间。生活生产、生产生态空间面积连续上升,仅生态生产空间面积减少,生态空间面积以波动变化为主。(2)2005—2025年该区域以中等空间冲突为主。(3)2005—2025年,总体而言空间冲突值的高-高聚集区主要位于四县域的农牧交错带、生活生产空间的交叉区域且表现明显,高-高聚集区在松潘县和马尔康县的农牧交错带有逐渐扩大的趋势,黑水县和理县集聚区面积先减少后轻微扩张;空间冲突值的低-低集聚区主要位于以生态生产空间为主与生态空间的交叉区域;集聚不显著的区域以生态空间为主。(4)整体来看,川西农牧交错区域“三生”空间中生态生产空间冲突强度最高。

The western Sichuan agriculture-pastoral ecotone is located in the alternate zone of the first and second tiers in China.It is a typically ecologically fragile area in the west,with significant undulations,complex topography and ecological environment.The study of spatial conflict(living-production-ecological)in the agriculture-pastoral ecotone of western Sichuan will contribute to the ecological security and social and economic coordinated and benign development in the ecotone.This paper takes four counties of Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture(Malkang,Li County,Heishui,and Songpan)as examples.The living-production-ecological space in the study area is divided into four types:living-production space,ecological-production space,production-ecological space,and ecological space.A spatial conflict measurement model is built to calculate the living-production-ecological spaces conflict index in the study area from 2005 to 2025.The results show that ecological production space accounts for the largest proportion of the four counties area from 2005 to 2025,followed by ecological space,production-ecological space,and living-production space.The area of living-production space and production-ecological space continues to rise,only the area of ecological-production space is reduced,and the area of ecological space is dominated by fluctuations.From 2005 to 2025,the region is dominated by medium-sized spatial conflicts.From 2005 to 2025,in general,the high-high agglomeration areas of spatial conflict values are mainly located in the four-county agriculture-pastoral ecotone and the intersection of living and production spaces,and their performance is obvious.The high-high agglomeration areas are gradually expanding in the agriculture-pastoral ecotone of Songpan County and Malkang County,and the high-high agglomeration areas of Heishui County and Li County first decrease and then slightly expand.The low-low agglomeration areas of spatial conflict value are mainly located at the intersection of ecological-production space and ecological space.Areas with inconspicuous agglomeration are dominated by ecological space.On the whole,the ecological-production space conflict intensity is the highest in the living-production-ecological spaces in the agriculture-pastoral ecotone of western Sichuan.