多情景模拟下内蒙古草地生态系统服务价值时空演变

Spatio-temporal evolution of grassland ecosystem service value in Inner Mongolia under multi scenario simulation

探索多情景下草地利用变化引起的生态系统服务价值时空演变机制,对于提升草地生态系统服务价值和维护区域生态安全具有重要意义。本研究基于草地综合顺序分类法(CSCS)及生态系统服务价值(ESV)估算方法,测算和分析了2010-2020年内蒙古不同类型草地利用及草地生态系统服务价值变化;利用PLUS模型分别模拟延续发展、草地保护和均衡发展情景下的各类型草地利用情况,并估算其草地生态系统服务价值;通过热点分析法及空间网格工具对比分析3种情景下的草地生态系统服务价值聚集情况。研究结果表明:1)2010-2020年内蒙古草地生态系统服务价值呈增长趋势,共增加101.36亿元,主要贡献来自丘陵荒漠草原草地和丘陵草甸草地;2)相较于2020年,延续发展、草地保护和均衡发展模拟情景下的草地生态系统服务价值均有不同程度的增加,且以草地保护情景下的西部草地生态系统服务价值增加最为显著。3)3种模拟情景下草地生态系统服务价值的热点和冷点均具有分布范围广且聚集的特点,热点区域出现以小区域带动周围呈分散化聚集。研究结果可为研究区草地生态系统平衡恢复和生态安全保障提供科学依据。

This research explored the ecosystem service value spatio-temporal evolution mechanisms caused by grassland use change under multiple scenarios.Such information is important for improving grassland ecosystem service value and maintaining regional ecological security.We first measured and analyzed the changes in different types of grassland use and grassland ecosystem service value in Inner Mongolia from 2010 to 2020 based on the comprehensive sequential classification of grassland(CSCS)and the estimation method of ecosystem service value(ESV).Next,we used the PLUS model to simulate the utilization of various types of grassland under sustainable development,grassland protection and balanced development scenarios,and estimated the service value of the grassland ecosystems.Last,we compared and analyzed the aggregation of grassland ecosystem service values under the three scenarios based on hot spot analysis and spatial grid tools.We found that:1)The service value of grassland ecosystems in Inner Mongolia shows an increasing trend,with a total increase of 10.14 billion CNY from 2010 to 2020,with the main contributions being from hilly desert grassland and hilly meadow grassland.2)As assessed in 2020,the service value of grassland ecosystems under the three simulation scenarios of continuous development,grassland protection and balanced development has increased in varying degrees,among which the ecosystem service value of western grassland under the grassland protection scenario has increased the most.3)The localities of high and low grassland ecosystem service value under the three simulation scenarios are characterized by wide distribution and aggregation,and the high value localities typically show a decentralized aggregation around small areas.The results provide a scientific basis for planning the restoration of grassland ecosystem balance and ecological security in the study area.