考虑碳中和目标与成本优化的可再生能源大规模发展规划

Large-scale Development of Renewable Energy in Consideration of Carbon Neutrality and Cost Optimization

提出一种碳中和目标下我国可再生能源大规模发展规划的两阶段多目标优化框架。考虑最大碳减排量与最小发电成本构建可再生能源大规模发展的多目标优化模型,设置碳中和目标达成时间与可再生能源投资总额变化的仿真情景,以考察中国可再生能源的发展趋势,分别利用多目标粒子群算法、多属性决策方法求出非支配解集,选取最优方案。结果显示,按时实现碳中和目标需主要可再生能源累计装机总量达到约8435 GW,光伏、风电、生物质能发电、水电分别约3863 GW、3882 GW、163 GW、527 GW,碳减排贡献分别占37%、53%、5%和5%;应持续大力发展占据主导地位的光伏和风电,但在投资增长情景下生物质能发电、光伏的装机量和碳减排量增长幅度更大,可考虑给予适当政策和投资倾斜。

This paper proposes a two-stage multi-objective optimization framework for the large-scale development of renewable energy in our country under the carbon neutralization goal.A multi-objective optimization model for the large-scale development of renewable energy is constructed considering the maximum carbon reduction and minimum power generation cost,and the simulation scenarios are set for the change of the time to reach the carbon neutral goal and the change of the total investment in renewable energy,so as to investigate the different development trends of China's renewable energy planning.The paper uses the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm and multi-attribute decision method respectively to obtain the non-dominant solution set and select the optimal scheme.The results show that the total installed capacity of major renewable energy sources is about 8435 GW,photovoltaic,wind power,biomass power and hydropower are about 3863 GW,3882 GW,163 GW and 527 GW respectively,and the contribution of carbon emission reduction accounts for 37%,53%,5%and 5%,respectively.It proposes to continuously and vigorously develop photovoltaic and wind power,which occupy a dominant position.However,in the scenario of investment growth,biomass power generation,like photovoltaic,has a larger increase in installed capacity and carbon emission reduction,so appropriate policies and investment inclinations can be considered.