基于VAR模型的甘肃省体育事业发展与经济增长动态关系研究

The Dynamic Relationship between Sports Development and Economic Growth in Gansu Province:A Study Based on VAR Model

目的:根据2002-2017年的国家统计局、甘肃省体育局公示的相关数据探讨甘肃省体育事业与经济增长的动态关系。方法:运用VAR模型的脉冲响应分析、格兰杰因果关系检验、方差分解等方法分析甘肃省体育事业与经济增长之间的动态效应、因果关系与贡献程度。结果表明:①短期内,甘肃省体育事业发展与经济增长能够互相推动,都具有正向影响;长期受到冲击时,两者间的正向影响都随着时间推移缓慢降低。②经济增长对甘肃省体育事业存在单向因果关系。③甘肃省体育事业与经济增长对自身的贡献程度最高,相互间的贡献度较低。结论:推动甘肃省体育事业的可持续发展,需在政府财政投入主导下提高体育事业资金在财政拨款中的比例;资金投入要精准高效,且延长资金投入的周期;高效发展体育及相关产业,修缮体育事业方面的公共体育基础设施。

OBJECTIVE:We explored the dynamic relationship between sports development and economic growth in Gansu Province using relevant data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Gansu Provincial Sports Bureau for the period 2002-2017.METHOD:We employed the VAR model to analyze the dynamic effects,causal relationships,and contribution levels between sports development and economic growth through impulse response analysis,Granger causality tests,and variance decomposition.RESULTS:(1)In the short term,sports development and economic growth in Gansu Province can mutually drive each other with positive impacts;however,the positive effects gradually diminish over time during periods of shocks.(2)Economic growth has a unidirectional causal relationship with sports development in Gansu Province.(3)The contribution level of sports development and economic growth to themselves is higher compared to their mutual contribution.CONCLUSION:Promoting the sustainable development of sports in Gansu Province requires an increased proportion of sports funding in government fiscal allocations underpinned by financial investments.The allocation of funds should be precise and efficient,and the investment period should be extended.Additionally,efficient development of sports-related industries and renovation of public sports infrastructure are essential.