人民币汇率财富效应的传导机制研究——基于中国城镇居民的分析

Transmission Mechanism of RMB Exchange Rate's Wealth Effect:An Analysis Based on Chinese Urban Residents

消费是我国当前拉动经济增长的主要驱动力。文章基于中国城镇居民2005年1月-2021年12月的有关数据,以居民股票资产和房产资产为研究对象,构建人民币汇率财富效应的传导机制,研究汇率波动对我国城镇居民消费的影响。研究表明,人民币汇率财富效应在我国城镇居民中并不显著,人民币汇率波动可以带来居民股票资产价值上涨,但因此导致居民消费下降,人民币汇率波动虽能促进居民房产财富增值,却难以进一步推动居民消费增长。我国应优化人民币汇率对居民股票资产价格的影响,发挥股票资产增值对居民消费的促进作用,减弱房价升高对居民消费的挤出效应,带动城镇居民消费增长,推动经济高质量发展。

Consumption is the main driving force for China's current economic growth.Based on relevant data of urban residents in China from January 2005 to December 2021,this paper takes stock assets and real estate assets as research objects,constructs a transmission mechanism of the wealth effect of the RMB exchange rate,and studies the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on consumption of urban residents in China.The results show that RMB exchange rate's wealth effect is not significant among urban residents in China.Fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate lead to an increase in the value of residents'stock assets,but also cause a decrease in residents'consumption.Although fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate lead to the appreciation of residents'real estate wealth,it is difficult to further promote the growth of residents'consumption.China should optimize the impact of the RMB exchange rate on residents'stock asset prices,leverage the promoting effect of stock asset appreciation on residents'consumption,weaken the crowding out effect of rising housing prices on residents'consumption,drive the growth of urban residents'consumption,and promote high-quality economic development.