国内国际双循环就业依存度的测度与分析

The Measurement and Analysis of Degree of Labor Dependence on Domestic and International Dual Circulation

在构建新发展格局的大背景下,如何根据自身禀赋和定位服务和融入国内国际双循环、因地制宜构建新发展格局成为各地区面临的共同课题。文章利用2012年和2017年中国区域间投入产出表测算了31个省份的双循环就业依存度,并分别从制造业和服务业出发捕捉其行业和区域异质性,得到了较为丰富的研究发现,拓展了双循环测度分析的研究视角,为因地制宜构建新发展格局提供量化依据和决策参考。主要研究结论如下:总体上国际循环和省际循环此消彼长,区域间产业间存在异质性;区域间联系紧密化,区域重要节点引领作用显著,但部分节点建设仍待加强;消费在经济循环中的主引擎地位逐步增强。基于以上结论,文章从因地制宜构建新发展格局、重视循环的重要节点建设、促进消费市场健康发展和推进全国统一大市场建设四个方面提出了政策建议。

In the context of the construction of a new development pattern,it has been an urgent issue for each region to form a new development pattern to serve and integrate into the domestic and international dual circulation,and adapt to local conditions according to its own endowments.The paper measures the labor dependence on domestic and international circulation of 31 Chinese provinces and cities using the inter-regional input-output table in 2012 and 2017 from CEADs,which captures the industrial and regional heterogeneity focusing on the manufacturing and service industry and draws ample research findings.The study to some extent expands the existing research on the measurement and analysis of dual circulation and provides quantitative reference for the policy-making of regional government.The main conclusions are as follows:on the whole,the proportion of international circulation decreases while that of provincial circulation increases,and there is heterogeneity among industries and the regions;Regional connections are closer,and important regional nodes play a leading role,but the construction of some nodes still needs to be strengthened;The role consumption plays as a main driver in economic development gradually increases.Based on the above conclusions,the paper puts forward policy suggestions from four aspects:constructing a new development pattern according to local conditions,attaching importance to the construction of important nodes of circulation,promoting the healthy development of consumer market and accelerating the construction of a unified national market.