不同免疫策略对贵阳市流行性腮腺炎发病影响的中断时间序列分析

Impact of different immunization strategies on mumps incidence in Guiyang city:an interrupted time series analysis

目的 评价麻腮风联合减毒活疫苗(MMR)不同免疫策略对贵阳市流行性腮腺炎(流腮)发病率的影响。方法 收集贵阳市2004-2022年流腮月报告发病率数据,构建中断时间序列回归模型,评价1剂次MMR纳入EPI前期、1剂次MMR纳入EPI时期和2剂次MMR纳入EPI时期流腮月发病率变化。结果 三个时期流腮月均发病率分别为2.25/10万、2.12/10万和1.18/10万。中断时间序列回归模型分析显示,在长期趋势上三个时期流腮发病率分别月均降低0.02/10万(t=-1.57,P=0.116)、上升0.01/10万(t=0.86,P=0.392)和降低0.04/10万(t=-4.46,P<0.001)。结论 2剂次MMR纳入EPI显著降低了贵阳市流腮发病率。

Objective To evaluate the impact of different immunization strategies of measles,mumps and rubella combined attenuated live vaccine(MMR)on mumps incidences in Guiyang city.MethodsWe collected data on monthly reported mumps incidences in Guiyang from 2004 to 2022 and constructed an interrupted time series regression model to determine changes of monthly mumps incidence during the one-dose MMR pre-EPI period,the one-dose MMR EPI period,and the two-dose MMR EPI-period.ResultsAverage monthly mumps incidences in the three periods were 2.25,2.12,and 1.18 cases per 100000 population,respectively.The interrupted time series regression model showed that mumps incidences per 100000 in the three periods decreased by 0.02(t=-1.57,P=0.116),increased by 0.01(t=0.86,P=0.392),and decreased by 0.04(t=-4.46,P<0.001)over the long-term.ConclusionsThe inclusion of two doses of MMR into EPI significantly reduced the incidence of mumps in Guiyang.