数字金融发展与货币政策有效性

The Development of Digital Finance and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

快速发展的数字金融不仅影响了传统金融业务,也助推了金融体系的变革,对我国宏观调控具有重大影响。文章从理论层面剖析了数字金融发展对货币政策的影响机理,并实证检验了两者之间的动态关系以及比较了数量调控与价格调控的作用效果。发现数字金融对货币政策中介目标和最终目标均具有明显时变效应,整体上增强了货币政策有效性;不同参考目标上量价调控效果存在差异,在产出水平方面,数字金融通过货币乘数效应增加了货币供应量,促进了经济增长,但降低了数量调控的传导效率。而利率对数字金融冲击的响应以及产出对利率冲击的响应均呈现较大波动性,增加了价格调控的不稳定性;在物价水平方面,相对于价格调控,数量调控对通货膨胀的影响要更加稳定;从贡献度来看,数字金融发展对货币政策有效性的贡献率在不断上升,具有持续增强的影响效果。文章研究结果对优化我国货币政策传导渠道、提高货币政策有效性有一定的意义。

The rapid development of digital finance has not only affected traditional financial business,but also promoted the reform of the financial system,which has a significant impact on China's macro-control.This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of digital financial development on monetary policy from the theoretical level,empirically tests the dynamic relationship between the two,and compares the effects of quantity regulation and price regulation.The results show that digital finance has obvious time-varying effects on the intermediary goal and the ultimate goal of monetary policy,which enhances the effectiveness of monetary policy as a whole.In terms of output level,digital finance increases the money supply through the money multiplier effect,promotes economic growth,but reduces the transmission efficiency of quantity regulation.The response of interest rates to digital financial shocks and the response of output to interest rate shocks are highly volatile,which increases the instability of price control.In terms of price level,the impact of quantitative regulation on inflation is more stable than that of price regulation;From the perspective of contribution,the contribution rate of digital financial development to the effectiveness of monetary policy is constantly increasing,and it has a continuously enhanced impact effect.The results of this paper have certain significance for optimizing the transmission channels of China's monetary policy and improving the effectiveness of monetary policy.