中国电力市场化改革能否提升能源效率?——基于合成控制法的实证研究

Can China's Ongoing Electricity Market Reforms Improve Energy Efficiency?——Evidence Based on the Synthetic Control Method

基于2008~2020年中国30个省份数据,采用Super-SBM模型和合成控制法评估电力市场化改革对试点省份能源效率的影响效果。研究发现:电力市场化改革显著提升了全要素能源效率;作用路径上,强制型政策工具通过推进产业结构转型,混合型政策工具通过驱动技术创新,自愿型政策工具通过优化能源结构来提高全要素能源效率。拓展性分析显示:中国短期和长期能源回弹效应均属于部分回弹,其中售电侧改革试点省份的能源回弹效应明显高于非试点省份,在地区分布上呈自东向西递减趋势。鉴于此,应充分发挥政策工具的引导作用,完善市场电价机制,构建电力交易低碳化跨域协同发展机制,从而更好地助力全国统一电力大市场建设,实现减排目标。

Based on the data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2008 to 2020,the Super-SBM model and synthetic control method are used to empirically evaluate the impact of electricity market reform on the energy efficiency of pilot provinces and cities.The results are as follows:the electricity market reform has significantly improved the total factor energy efficiency;On the role path,mandatory policy tools improve total factor energy efficiency by promoting industrial structure transformation,hybrid policy tools improve total factor energy efficiency by driving technological innovation,and voluntary policy tools improve total factor energy efficiency by optimizing energy structure.Further analysis shows that both short-term and long-term energy rebound effects in China belong to partial rebound,and the energy rebound effects in the pilot provinces of electricity selling side reform are significantly higher than those in the non-pilot provinces,and the regional distribution shows a decreasing trend from east to west.Therefore,it is necessary to give full play to the guiding role of policy tools,improve the market electricity price mechanism,and build a crossdomain collaborative development mechanism of low carbon power trading,so as to better help the construction of the national unified power market and achieve the “3060” emission reduction target.