如何有效促进人口生育水平提升——基于江苏省人口出生率影响因素的实证分析

How to Effectively Promote the Improvement of Population Fertility Level?An Empirical Analysis Based on the Influencing Factors of Fertility Rate in Jiangsu Province

目的:从江苏省13个地级市的宏观角度,分析江苏省人口出生率的关键影响因素,为有效促进江苏省生育水平提升,推动人口长期均衡发展提出对策建议。方法:基于2016~2020年江苏省13个地级市的宏观数据,利用面板回归模型进行实证分析,考察江苏省人口出生率的影响因素。结果:基准回归结果显示城镇化率(P<0.05,β=0.212)和平均预期寿命(P<0.05,β=0.149)会显著提高江苏出生率,居民消费价格指数(P<0.05,β=-1.04)和居民人均收入(P<0.01,β=-8.31)则会显著降低江苏出生率。加入固定效应后,仅有卫生机构数对出生率有显著的负向影响(P<0.05,β=-4.959)。而异质性分析结果显示,不同城镇化率和不同居民人均收入水平对出生率的影响存在差异。结论:可以通过降低家庭育儿的经济成本、优化医疗资源配置和加强生育配套服务体系建设等措施来提升江苏省生育水平,促进人口长期均衡发展。

Objective To analyze the key influencing factors of the fertility rate in Jiangsu Province from the macro perspective of 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province,so as to put forward countermeasures for effectively promoting the fertility level of Jiangsu Province and long-term balanced population development.Method Based on the macro data of 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province from 2016 to 2020,the panel regression model was used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of the fertility rate in Jiangsu Province.Result The results of benchmark regression showed that urbanization rate(P<0.05,β=0.212)and average life expectaney(P<0.05,β=0.149)can significantly improve Jiangsu's ferility rate,consumer price index(P<0.05,β=-1.04)and per capita income(P<0.01,β=-8.31)can significantly reduce Jiangsu's fertility rate.After adding the fixed effect,only the number of health facilities had a significant negative effect on the fertility rate.And the results of heterogeneity anal-ysis showed that there were differences in the impact of different urbanization rates and different income levels on fertility rate.Con-clusion We can improve Jiangsu Province's fertility level and the long-term balanced population development by reducing the eco-nomic cost of family childcare,optimizing the allocation of medical resources,and strengthening the construction of the supporting service system for childbearing.