摘要
目的:探究中国1978年~2019年预期寿命水平与分解卫生费用之间的Granger因果关系。方法:对预期寿命使用Kakwani调整,建立向量自回归模型进行Granger因果性分析。结果:公共卫生支出费用是寿命水平的Granger原因(P=0.003),而寿命水平同时也是私人卫生支出费用的Granger原因(P=0.008)。结论:预期寿命与卫生费用之间的关系不是单向、固定的。中国在这40年间通过公共卫生支出的努力成功使得预期寿命从不足66岁快速增至77岁,但随着慢性病逐渐成为人群主要疾病负担,私人卫生支出费用不断攀升。本文结论反映了健康和疾病模式转变在寿命水平提高和卫生费用增长之间的重要性。相关研究和政策应当重视这种模式变化,积极推进卫生领域改革。
Objective To investigate the Granger-causality between the life expectancy and the decomposition of health expenditure from 1978 to 2019 in China.Methods The Kakwani adjustment was applied on the life expectancy.And a VAR model was developed to analyze the Granger-causality.Results Public health expense accounts for the improvement of life expectancy in China(P=0.003).And the life expectancy was a Granger cause of the private health expense(P=0.008).Conclusion The causal link between life expectancy and health expenditure is not unidirectional or fixed.The great effort of public health expense has made the life expectancy grew from less than 60 to 77 during the 40-year period in China.But as the chronic diseases gradually becoming the major disease burden,the private medical expenditure kept increasing.It is suggested that the related studies and policies should consider the mode transformation,and promote further reform.
作者
于元博
郑晓瑛
Yu Yuanbo(Institute of Population Research,Peking University,Beijing,P.R.China.)
出处
《中国卫生事业管理》
北大核心
2023年第7期536-538,551,共4页
Chinese Health Service Management
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“以健康中国战略为基础实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略”(21ZDA107)
国家科技重大专项“健康预期寿命及其价值的测算技术和影响因素与应用研究”(SQ2022YFC3600291)。
