基于相对贫困的广东省医疗救助基金需求增长测算研究

Calculation of Demand Growth of Medical Assistance Funds in Guangdong Province Based on Relative Poverty

目的:基于相对贫困标准,对广东省医疗救助基金需求的增长情况进行研究,为广东省医疗救助基金的平稳运行及可持续发展提供政策建议。方法:使用广东省医疗救助及相对贫困的时间序列数据,利用Brown、Holt指数平滑模型进行模拟与预测。结果:广东省2023-2025医疗救助基金规模预计从39.4亿元增长到44.5亿元,年均增长6.3%;基于相对贫困标准的医疗救助需求预计从225亿元增长到259.4亿元,年均增长7.4%。2025年,广东省医疗救助基金供需的资金缺口为214.9亿元。结论:广东省医疗救助基金的政府投入有放缓趋势,而基于相对贫困标准的医疗救助需求将高速增长,供需缺口巨大。因此,未来需加大医疗救助基金的政府投入,并逐步建立瞄准相对贫困人口的医疗救助机制,细分医疗救助对象,实行渐进式的医疗救助标准。

Objective:Based on relative poverty standard,this paper studied the situation of demand growth of medical assistance funds in Guangdong province,so as to provide policy suggestions for the smooth operation and sustainable development of medical assistance funds in Guangdong province.Methods:According to the time series data of medical assistance and relative poverty in Guangdong province,this paper used Brown and Holt exponential smoothing models to simulate and predict.Results:From 2023 to 2025 in Guangdong province,the medical assistance funds is expected to grow from 3.94 billion yuan to 4.45 billion yuan,with an average annual growth of 6.3%;Based on the relative poverty standard,the demand for medical assistance is expected to grow from 22.5 billion yuan to 25.94 billon yuan,with an average annual growth of 7.4%.In 2025,the funding gap between the supply and demand of medical assistance funds in Guangdong province will be 21.49 billion yuan.Conclusion:In Guangdong province,the government investment in medical assistance funds will slow down,while the demand for medical assistance based on relative poverty standards will grow rapidly,and the gap between supply and demand will be huge.Therefore,in the future,it is necessary to increase government investment in medical assistance funds,gradually establish a medical assistance mechanism targeting the relatively poor,subdivide the objects of medical assistance,and implement progressive medical assistance standards.