私募评估中最近融资及股权分配和赎回风险浅析

Analysis of Recent Financing and Equity Distribution and Redemption Risks in Private Equity Evaluation

私募股权投资常约定优先权利,如回购权等,赎回阶段存在失败风险。国际私募修订的估值指引中,最近融资价格法不再是单独可选择的评估方法,该方法实务中有直接及间接瑕疵,笔者认为VM指数法实质是最近融资价格法。权利不同价值不尽相同,有优先权利的私募股权投资,应使用复杂股权价值分配模型,笔者就该模型中参数尤其是断点价值、分配权限确定进行了解析。赎回风险度量,笔者对危机概率用了预警Z值等三种定量方法、危机损失率用了VaR值等两种定量方法。通过案例,阐述了VM指数法、股权分配和赎回风险应用。

Private equity investment often stipulates priority rights,such as repurchase rights,etc.,and there is a risk of failure in the redemption stage.In the revised valuation guidelines for international private equity,the latest financing price method is no longer an optional evaluation method.There are direct and indirect flaws in the practice of this method.The author believes that the VM index method is essentially the latest financing price method.Different rights have different values.Private equity investment with priority rights should use a complex equity value allocation model.The author analyzes the parameters in this model,especially the breakpoint value and the determination of allocation authority.To measure redemption risk,the author uses three quantitative methods for crisis probability and two quantitative methods such as VaR for crisis loss rate.Through cases,the application of VM index method,equity allocation and redemption risk is explained.