白山市森林火险特征及预报方法研究

Study on the Characteristics and Forecasting Methods of Forest Fire Risk in Baishan City

根据收集的历史森林火情数据、森林可燃物观测数据和林木特征数据,结合预报员森林火险等级预报经验,在原有的Nesterov火险指数算法的基础上,结合中国气象局和国家林业局联合发布的修正后的布龙—戴维斯火险气象因子及其指数查对表(森林火险查算表),增加风速因子,考虑物候和地表影响,建立白山本地的森林火险等级预报方法。试报结果表明,此方法预报的森林火险等级符合实际经验和森防一线人员的现场判断,与日常经验预报结论趋势基本吻合,与森林可燃物观测结论对应较好,可以作为实际业务应用。

According to the collected historical forest fire data,forest fuel observation data and forest feature data,combined with the forecasters’experience in forest fire risk grade prediction,on the basis of the original Nesterov fire risk index algorithm,combined with the revised Bulong-Davis fire risk meteorological factor and its index check table(forest fire risk check table)jointly issued by the China Meteorological Administration and the State Forestry Administration,the wind speed factor was added,and the phenology and surface effects were finally considered,Establish the local forest fire risk grade prediction method in Baishan.The results of the trial report showed that the forest fire risk level predicted by this method was consistent with the actual experience and the on-site judgment of the front-line personnel of forest defense,basically consistent with the trend of the daily experience forecast conclusion,and corresponded well with the observation conclusion of forest fuel,which can be used as a practical business application.