基于MGWR的乡村聚落空间演变的影响因素分析——以海口市为例

Factors Influencing the Evolution of Rural Settlements Based on MGWR:A Case Study of Haikou City

以海口市为案例,利用MGWR模型,揭示了2002—2020年乡村聚落演变影响因素的空间异质性。研究发现:1)海口市乡村聚落面积在近20年间增加了53.5%,人均聚落面积由120.59 m^(2)/人增长至166.79 m^(2)/人,总体表现为北增南减、聚落景观零散化以及明显的空间异质性特征。2)各因素的作用具有明显的空间非平稳性及尺度效应差异,带宽介于69~10482之间,位置、到道路的距离、到房地产开发区的距离和高程因素的作用为微观尺度,城镇化率和坡度因素的作用为中观尺度,到中心城区的距离、人口变化率、到河流的距离、路网密度和旅游资源点可达性因素的作用为全局尺度。3)中心城区带动和房地产开发对乡村聚落演变具有最重要影响,并且聚落越来越向海拔低、坡度小、离中心城区近、离房地产开发区近、城镇化水平高、路网密度高的地区扩展,到河流的距离、人口变化率、旅游资源点可达性却对乡村聚落演变没有显著影响。4)转变房地产业为纲的发展思路,严格执行“一户一宅”制度,是有效遏制乡村聚落无序扩张的重要举措。

The factors influencing the spatial evolution of rural settlements have always been the focus of rural geography.China's rural settlement space has undergone dramatic changes driven by rapid urbanization in recent decades.However,the spatial heterogeneity and scale effects of the factors influencing the spatial evolution of rural settlements have not attracted widespread attention and in-depth research from scholars.Taking Haikou City as a case example,this study examined the spatial heterogeneity of the factors influencing the spatial evolution of rural settlements from 2002 to 2020 using the remote sensing image visual interpretation method,spatial analysis technology of Geographic Information System(GIS),and Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression model.The study showed that:(1)The area of rural settlements in Haikou City has increased by 53.5%in the past 20 years,and the per capita area has grown from 120.59 square meters per person to 166.79 square meters per person,with the characteristics of expansion in the north and contraction in the south,a scattered settlement landscape,and obvious spatial heterogeneity.Moreover,the distribution and area changes of rural settlements showed a significant positive spatial agglomeration pattern.(2)The influences of various factors have obvious differences on spatial non-stationarity and scale effects with bandwidths ranging from 69 to 10482.The effects of four factors,location,distance to road,distance to real estate development area,and elevation,on the spatial evolution of rural settlements are at the local scale.The effects of two factors,urbanization rate and slope,are at the mesoscale,and the effects of five factors,distance to the central city,population change rate,distance to river,road network density,and accessibility of tourist resource points,are at the global scale.Among these,the spatial evolution of rural settlements is most sensitive to location.(3)Factors such as the impetus of the central city and the development of real estate have the most important impact on the spatial evolution of rural settlements.In addition,settlements are increasingly expanding to areas closer to the central city,closer to real estate development zones,and closer to areas with lower altitudes,smaller slopes,higher levels of urbanization,and higher densities of road network.However,factors such as distance to river,population change rate,and accessibility of tourist resource points have no significant effects on the evolution of rural settlements.(4)Changing the development concepts led by the real estate industry and strictly implementing the"One household,one house"system are important measures to curb the disorderly expansion of rural settlements in Haikou City effectively.